NHL bets: How past teams down 0-2 have fared in the Stanley Cup Final
The Florida Panthers head home for tomorrow's Game 3 of the 2023 Stanley Cup Final down 0-2. Not only are they down, but they're playing some undisciplined, sloppy hockey, and their goaltending that got them here has dissipated.
While that context is the foundation of whatever is to come, there's no harm in observing the past to see how similar teams have fared when in Florida's position.
Previous 0-2 situations in the Stanley Cup Final
Over the past 25 years, 15 Stanley Cup Finals have seen a team go down 0-2. Of those 15 teams, 10 went on to win Game 3, but only two ended up coming back and hoisting the Stanley Cup.
The prices certainly suggest books are putting weight into that trend despite two blowout losses for Florida. The Panthers are -120 to win tomorrow night, while Vegas is -500 to win the series.
It may be hard to consider Florida after seeing how they've started this series, but an important element to so many of these Game 3 wins for previous teams in an 0-2 hole has been the presence of returning home. All 10 teams who won their respective Game 3s after dropping the first two in the series were on home ice.
In this year's playoffs, Florida is 4-3 at home, though they've won four of their last five in Sunrise. It's worth noting however, that Vegas is 6-2 on the road, having won all three road Game 3s up to this point.
How have goals and shots looked for these desperate team?
One might caution a guess that the team down 0-2 starts ripping pucks at a higher frequency in order to make something happen, but the historical numbers don't necessarily back that up.
Of the 15 teams over this 25-year stretch we've looked at, the average was just 28.53 shots on goal per game in their Game 3s.
The average goals scored from these teams was 3.2 per game, and the average total in these Game 3 situations was just 5.87.
That may not matter as much here, as Florida has averaged 33.5 SOG/game this series, though they have averaged just 29 shots/game at home this postseason, far below their regular season number.
The total for Game 3 is set at an even 6, a number that hit in both Games 1 and 2 in Vegas. At home in these playoffs, the Panthers have had their games go for 6+ in four of seven. The Golden Knights have hit 6+ in five of their eight road games.
How to approach Game 3 for your bets
It's hard to ignore that 10 of the 15 teams to go down 0-2 in the Stanley Cup Final over the past 25 years have won their Game 3, all at home.
Florida's moneyline feels like a viable play, but they have to clean up the penalties and the defensive effort to stand a chance. Sergei Bobrovsky, who was so magical in Rounds 2 and 3, has lost his momentum, pulled early in Game 2.
Florida's goal-scoring has dipped on home ice this postseason while they tend to allow both more shots and goals. That doesn't elicit a ton of confidence with Vegas looking so dialed in, but it does suggest this game could open up. We're caught in the middle of two conflicting trends. What do you weigh more, recent numbers or past Stanley Cup history?
Ultimately, the Panthers have logged 31+ SOG against the Golden Knights in seven straight meetings and feel likely to be the outlier in terms of Game 3 shooting efforts. Look to Adin Hill saves tomorrow and some Florida SOG props.
As for the game's outcome, the potential combination that currently has our eye is Florida +1.5 and over 5.5 goals, which comes in at +135 on DraftKings. History suggests they win, and location trends from this postseason point to at least six goals being scored on Thursday night.
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