NHL Monday bets: Two +300 plays built around three players
We get the fresh week of NHL started with a handful of games, and I'm not sure what it is, but this Monday's slate is telling me to keep it simple. Now, a three-leg parlay may not be simple, but there are three players in particular that look just tremendous for shots and a point. There all quite juiced, and rather than mix and match with a fourth player that I don't love as much, I'm going to run a pair of parlays for both their shots and points.
Ideally at least one of these will hit, but based on the opponent, recent production and past history, both plays look great to me.
.5u: Tyler Toffoli over 2.5 SOG, Roman Josi over 3.5 SOG & Joel Eriksson Ek over 2.5 SOG (+363 DK)
We're targeting Calgary, Nashville and Minnesota first and foremost today. The Flames average 37.4 shots per game on the road and should easily find their spots against an Ottawa team allowing 32 per game at home over their last 10.
Then there's Nashville hosting Arizona, which may be a bit self-explanatory. The Coyotes are allowing 35.4 shots per game on the road and struggling with penalties, and seeing the Predators average north of 32 shots per game at home suggests to me plenty of pucks on net are coming here.
Finally, I'm drawn to the Minnesota end tonight. The Wild offense has a bit quiet lately, but Florida tends to get into high-volume games. They're allowing 32.9 shots per game on the road over their last 10 and handing out 3.4 power-play opportunities that will help our shot target hit his number.
The teams have been established, so here's why I'm liking the names highlighted above.
Tyler Toffoli has 3+ SOG in 10 of his last 11 games and nine of his last 11 on the road. Toffoli is averaging 7.8 attempts per game over his last five on the road and has gone over this 2.5 number in five of the last six meetings with Ottawa.
Roman Josi is surely the most popular play of the day and it's for good reason. Arizona is one of the best targets for defensemen shots, and Josi has loved seeing them the past few seasons. Josi has 4+ SOG in four straight games against the Coyotes and 11 of his last 15. He has 6+ in three straight, so our modest ask of four seems quite attainable here.
Then there's Joel Eriksson Ek, who has topped 2.5 SOG in seven of his past nine and six of his last eight home games. He's logged 11 SOG in his last three against Florida, and he's racked up 12 shots on the power play over the past 10 games, the most on Minnesota. Given the chances I expect them to see, that involvement makes him one of my favorite targets tonight.
.5u: Toffoli, Josi & Eriksson Ek 1+ point each (+315 DK)
I like all three of these guys for a point as well. Calgary is averaging 3.6 goals per game in their last 10 road games and the Senators are trotting out a third-string goalie. Arizona is allowing 3.8 goals per game on the road over the last 10, and Florida has allowed four goals per game on the road over the past 10 and I see quite the power play edge favoring a Wild goal.
Toffoli has six points over his last four games, a point in 13 of his last 16 on the road and he's recorded a point in five of his last six against Ottawa.
Josi dominates Arizona with points as well, racking up 14 points in his last seven games against them. Josi has a point in nine of his last 10 games and eight straight home games.
Eriksson Ek has a point in nine of his last 10 games, three straight at home, has eight power-play points in his last 10 and has seven points in his last four games against Florida.
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