NHL playoff bets: One SOG prop for Carolina-Florida Game 4

Here we are, on the precipice of a Conference Finals sweep, a disappointing pair of situations we have on our hands as NHL fans and bettors. While it does seem that Florida has this in the bag, there is still value in some props, even if they haven't been too successful this series.

Carolina has not gotten consistent play out of anyone, and teams that go down 0-3 are 2-6 in Game 4s over the past three seasons. It feels like a sweep is imminent.

But there is a level of expected desperation here, right? There has to be. If the Canes have any pride they try and grab a win, and for all their struggles, they have continued getting a steady stream of shots on goal as a team.

.5u: Brent Burns over 3.5 SOG (+110 Barstool)

I'm moving this wager down to a half-unit because Game 3 went so poorly, and also because Brent Burns has finished with just one SOG in two straight games.

So why go to him? Volume.

Burns has 6+ attempts in all three of these games, and he has 6+ attempts in five of his last six against Florida. When Burns gets 6+ attempts off, he covers this line at a 58% rate this season. 

Burns has logged 7+ attempts in four of his last five on the road, and four of his last six vs Florida. When Burns gets 7+ attempts off, he covers this line at a 63% rate.

Desperation hopefully breeds even more attempts out of Burns from the blue-line in an attempt to get the puck on net and see what happens. I'm taking a stab here at plus-money.