NHL playoff bets: Two bets on a winner and two player props
Let's put last night behind us. We're on to Game 2s, and the first games of these series treated us right. Today, we've got two bets focused on a game outcome, and two on a player prop.
Bets on a winner
Dallas over 2.5 goals & moneyline (-115 DK)
Win or lose I tend to gravitate toward running back Game 1 reads, and the Stars to go over 2.5 was a read that did not deliver. Off a double-OT loss, I like giving them a chance to right the ship at home and even this series.
They had some quality looks, particularly on the power play, and I'm willing to wager they find the back of the net at a more frequent pace.
I foresee a bit looser of a game tonight, with nearly two extra periods to start the series under everyone's belts. Out of curiosity, I looked back on last year's postseason, a series between the Rangers and Penguins that went to triple overtime. New York lost, and came back the following game and put up 40 shots on net and won 5-2. If Dallas feels so desired to replicate that outcome, I would be interested.
I like Jason Robertson to score here as well and may play him later.
Edmonton -1.5 (+120 DK)
Yes, I'm a sucker for giving the home team who lost Game 1 a chance to rebound in Game 2 and knot up the series.
Last year, the Oilers lost to the Kings in Game 1 of Round 1 at home and came back and won 6-0 in Game 2. This Edmonton team is too talented to go down 0-2 with both losses at home, and I expect a more dominant effort this evening. They went into the third up 2-0 on Monday before all hell broke loose, and I'm giving them the opportunity to figure things out.
These two teams met twice in the final two weeks of the regular season and the Oilers won both games by two goals. At this price, and with these stakes, count me in.
Player props
Tyler Seguin over 2.5 SOG (-105 DK)
We loaded up on Tyler Seguin in Monday's article and he delivered, and while his odds are no longer +110, I'm willing to go right back to him here at -105.
It's important to keep in mind as you look back on the Game 1 box score that these two played two overtimes. There are a lot of big shot games throughout, and the numbers are going to be buoyed. What gives me confidence to go back to Seguin is that he covered his SOG line in regulation on Monday.
Seguin now has 4+ shots in three straight and four of his last five, and the past two seasons against Minnesota at home, Seguin is averaging 5.0 SOG/game.
The volume remains high and I'm comfortable projecting 4+ attempts again. When that number is reached, Seguin goes over 2.5 shots at a 67% rate.
Adrian Kempe over 3.5 SOG (+114 FD)
How do we not go back to Adrian Kempe? The man is on an absolute tear. He has eight shots or more in three of his last four games. Yes, eight shots or more.
Game 1 saw Kempe finish with two goals on eight shots and 12 attempts, and there's really no reason to not continue backing this volume for one of the Kings' most important players.
He's loved seeing Edmonton. He's averaged 4.7 SOG/game in the past two years against the Oilers, going over 3.5 shots in 10 of 16. At plus-money, I'm biting.
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