NHL playoff bets: Two SOG props for Vegas-Dallas Game 4
We have another NHL Game 4 with one team down 0-3 tonight, and if last night was any sign of what's to come, we should expect some desperate Dallas shots. I'll ride into this game with that belief in tow, targeting two guys at plus-money to deliver on their SOG props.
Wyatt Johnston over 2.5 SOG (+112 FD)
This one is relatively straightforward: Wyatt Johnston has been rolling. Johnston has finished with shot totals of six, four and four thus far this series, building off the 5-SOG game he had in Game 7 last round.
He's been much steadier on home ice, where Dallas is tonight. Johnston is over 2.5 in six of eight this postseason at home, averaging 3.9 SOG/game.
The young center has 19 shot attempts through three games, and there's no reason to envision he slows down now. At plus-money, I'm all over this spot.
.5u: Jason Robertson over 3.5 SOG (+110 DK/FD)
This bet is very much in the same vein as Brent Burns last night, i.e. a guy who has not been hitting his shot prop but has the volume to garner a look tonight.
Yes, Jason Robertson has gone under in all three games, and he's shockingly gone under in 10 straight games. Griffin, you're betting a guy to go over his shots for the first time since the first round? Good question, yes I am — but only for a half-unit so relax with your accusatory stare.
Listen. Robertson had 10 shot attempts last game. He's averaging 6.6 attempts/game over his last five, 7.3 attempts/game at home this postseason and 6.2 attempts/game in the past two seasons against Vegas. Down 0-3, I expect a similar level of desperation that we saw last night from Carolina (39 shots), and one of their most important players has to get in on the shot parade.
When Robertson gets off 5+ attempts, he's gone over 3.5 SOG at a 62% clip (67% at home). When he finds 6+ shot attempts, he's over in 67% of games (71% at home).
I'm giving him a chance, but I don't blame you if you hold off tonight.
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