NHL props: Three SOG looks for Arizona vs. Anaheim tonight
This Arizona Coyotes vs. Anaheim Ducks late-night affair is the perfect game to load up some shots on goal (SOG) props, so load 'em up we shall.
Both teams rank inside the top 12 for most shots allowed per game this season, and their body of work from the past few seasons shows us that both are far more likely than not to let up plenty of shots.
That smells like opportunity, which makes some of the prices I'm seeing a welcome sight. There's value in this game, so don't be shy.
Barrett Hayton over 2.5 SOG (-115 DraftKings)
Barrett Hayton is my favorite look of the night, and yes I also bet his goal at +250 on FanDuel. Hayton is Arizona's top-line center, and he's also leading the team in power-play shots with nine on the young season.
That PP involvement figures to come into play here, because the Ducks are handing out a truly absurd 5.3 power-play opportunities per game this season.
Knowing Hayton will have those chances makes me feel good about grabbing his SOG line here. Hayton has gone over in five of eight games this season and four straight meetings with the Ducks.
Based on his averages this season and past games against Anaheim, I'm comfortable projecting Hayton for 4+ shot attempts tonight. When he finds that volume, he's gone over this 2.5 line in 26 of his last 30 games.
Trevor Zegras over 2.5 SOG (+108 FanDuel)
Trevor Zegras has eclipsed this 2.5 line in four of his last six games, including a monster game against Arizona in which the young center piled up eight SOG on 17(!) attempts.
Given that recent monsoon of a game against this opponent, I'm a bit shocked to see his price so favorable tonight. Zegras has gone over 2.5 shots in three of his last four games against Arizona. I'm in at +108.
Mason McTavish over 2.5 SOG (+134 FanDuel)
Now this is a price I'm truly shocked at. McTavish is trending up with his volume and his shot production. He's gone over 2.5 shots in three straight games and four of his last five, averaging 3.2 SOG/game in this stretch.
It's the attempts that really make this a play for me. He's averaging 6.4 attempts/game over his last five and 7.7 attempts/game in three home games.
I'm guessing his price is set as such because he went under against Arizona last game, but you can't ignore this volume. This price was simply too good for me to pass up.
Even if we were to be conservative and project McTavish at just 4+ attempts, when he gets that number, he's over this line at a 70% clip. +134 for that rate? Uh, yeah, OK.
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