NHL Thursday best bets: It's all about points tonight
We won more bets than we lost last night here, and that's something we should go ahead and make a habit of for the rest of the week. Today, I'll be taking a new approach to circling some of our favorite prop spots. As I went through my typical research this morning, the bulk of the plays standing out are points props instead of the usual Shots on Goal plays I tend to gravitate toward. Instead of writing out each, I'll instead highlight the teams I'm liking to score and who seems to be in a good spot to get involved.
Unless otherwise specified, I am wagering a half-unit on each bet.
Boston Bruins
Bruins-Oilers is most definitely the game of the night between two of the best teams and best offenses in the league. Boston looks like the far better option to find goals. They're averaging 3.7 goals per game at home over their past 10 while Edmonton is allowing an equal 3.7 per game on the road in the same stretch.
The Oilers have also struggled slowing down opposing power plays, and their penalty issues tend to make that problem more paramount. There are three guys that look awesome to me for points, and all come in at plus-money.
Dmitry Orlov point (+100 DK/FD)
- Orlov has been with Boston for five games, and has racked up nine points in his last four games
- That includes two points against Edmonton
- He has four points in two home games with the Bruins
- He's up on the top power play line in a game Boston should get chances skating a man-up
Pavel Zacha point (+104 FD)
- Zacha has a point in 13 of his last 20 games
- He had a point last game vs. Edmonton
- Skating alongside David Pastrnak always helps the cause for getting involved in a goal
David Pastrnak over 1.5 points (+170 MGM)
- Pastrnak has 2+ points in 15 of his last 28 home games, and to me his odds at +170 are mispriced given his home production
- Has two points in two of his last four games against the Oilers
Carolina Hurricanes
Carolina is certainly in a smash spot here for scoring against Philly. The Flyers are allowing 4.1 goals per game in their last 10 on the road while the Hurricanes are scoring 4.2 goals per game at home. Philadelphia's PK is also the worst in the league over the past 20 days while Carolina's power play is one of the best, so the expectation here is that a power-play goal is coming.
Carolina has notched 4+ goals in four of its last five meetings with Philadelphia.
Jordan Staal point (+130 FD) & Jordan Martinook point (+140 FD/DK)
- Lumping these two together, as they're both on the third line, a line that has had serious success against the Flyers this season
- Staal has five points in two games against the Flyers and has a point in five of his last six against Philly
- Martinook has four points in two games vs. Philly this season and a point in three straight meetings
St. Louis Blues
I'd like to pick on the Sharks for the rest of the season, so in slots St. Louis tonight. The Blues are averaging 3.5 goals per game at home over their last 10 while the Sharks are getting peppered with shots, handing out a ton of power plays, and allowing 3.4 goals per game over their past 10 on the road.
Pavel Buchnevich over 1.5 points (+188 FD)
- Similarly to Pastrnak, this is just a price I can't say no to. Buchnevich has 2+ points in three of his last four games.
- He's loved seeing the Sharks, racking up eight points over his last three meetings, with two or more in all three
- On the top power-play line which should have a few chances to score
1u: Cale Makar & Vince Dunn 1+ point each (+180 DK)
We'll mix it up to end and just highlight two players, the same combo we ran on Tuesday to success.
Cale Makar
- Colorado is averaging 3.9 goals per game at home over their last 10 while Los Angeles is allowing 3.7 per game on the road, making the Avs a team I'd like a piece of
- Makar had four points last game and has a point in two straight since returning three games ago
- He has a point in seven straight home games
- Makar has loved the Kings, racking up seven points in his past two home games against LA and recording a point in five straight meetings
Vince Dunn
- The Kraken are averaging 3.7 goals per game at home over their last 10 and Mads Sogaard is expected in net who just allowed five goals to Chicago
- Dunn has a point in seven straight games
- Dunn has six points in three games against Ottawa as a member of Seattle
- He's on the top power play, and the Senators are averaging a league-high 4.1 PPOA/game over their last 20 days
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