NHL Thursday bets: Five SOG props at solid odds
I hope everyone had a wonderful holiday season! I took a few days away from penning my picks on the ice, but excited to be back digging into the nightly slates. As it stands, there are some real good looking spots tonight in the NHL, aided by a massive 11-game set of games. Shots on goal props are rising above the rest for today, so let's dig in.
Dylan Cozens over 2.5 SOG (+116 FD)
Buffalo is in a great spot here to pour it on against Detroit, especially with the Red Wings on a back-to-back. The Sabres are allowing 35 shots and four goals per game when at home, and Detroit is allowing north of 33 shots per contest on the road.
While the studs like Jeff Skinner and Tage Thompson both look great for props tonight, I'm more drawn to the odds here on Dylan Cozens.
Cozens centers Buffalo's second line and skates on the top power play unit. His shot volume is far better at home this year (5.8 attempts/game over the last five compared 2.6/game in his last five on the road).
Cozens sure has enjoyed seeing Detroit this season. In two meetings, he's logged five shots on net both times, scoring three goals. Sign me up for more shots for the Buffalo youngster.
Jacob Trouba over 2.5 SOG (+108 FD)
I'm confident the Rangers can get 30+ shots as a team tonight, and I expect Trouba to be involved.
His hit-rate is stronger as the visitor and he's gone for 3+ shots in five straight games against the Lightning, including a six-shot effort back in October. Tampa Bay has allowed the 11th-most shots per game to defensemen over the last 10 games.
Justin Faulk over 2.5 SOG (-104 FD)
Let's stick with defensemen for a moment, as Justin Faulk is set to take advantage of what is another vulnerable team to shots from the position.
Chicago has seen the eighth-most shots per game against them from defensemen, and overall the Blackhawks are a must-target for shot props every night, as they allow 36.1 per game on the road.
Faulk has gone over 2.5 shots in three straight, three of his last four at home, and six of his last seven against Chicago.
Kyle Connor over 3.5 SOG (+104 FD)
I'd like a piece of Winnipeg here at home, as they'll host Vancouver who allows 33.5 shots per game on the road.
Of the available options, I find the value on Kyle Connor to be the best choice for us in this one. Connor is far more of a force at home. On the road, he hasn't gone over 3.5 shots in eight straight, averaging just 4.4 attempts per game over his last five.
At home, Connor is averaging 4.3 SOG/game over his last 10, has gone over 3.5 in three of his last four, and his attempt numbers jump up to 7.0/game over his last five.
Connor went under in Vancouver a few weeks ago, but in his two previous meetings racked up 11 SOG.
Tomas Hertl over 2.5 SOG (+110 DK)
Tomas Hertl has turned it on big time. He's logged 3+ shots in nine of his last 12 games, but the far more encouraging part is that he's finished with at minimum four shots in all but one of those contests.
He's piled up 16 SOG in his past three in San Jose, and should have no issues keeping it going against a Philly team allowing nearly 34 shots per game on the road this season.
Hertl finished with one shot in Philly back in October, but that was during a stretch in which he was barely shooting the puck. In his three previous meetings with the Flyers, Hertl went over 2.5 shots each time, twice finishing with 6+ SOG. This is an awesome price at +110.
Enjoy the games tonight, and good luck!
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