NHL Thursday bets: Games to target for goals

We went with a new approach last night, and it did not work, with the lone play losing. Luckily, tonight's massive 10-game slate offers a ton of great goals value, so we can get back to straight plays.

The games circled below are my favorites for scores, so I'll be betting one unit on each team total identified. I've also brought out my favorite goal-scorer for each team, which I will parlay at the end for a lottery ticket for the night.

On a loaded NHL evening, I have four team totals. Let's get to the spots.

St. Louis Blues

When scanning the NHL board on a given night, it's typically a good idea to circle whichever team is playing Montreal.

The Canadiens are allowing 4.4 goals per game at home in their last 10 and 5.0 in their past five, the most in the league.

The Blues own one of the more dynamic offenses in the NHL, and on the road they're averaging the ninth-most goals per game on the road in their past 10 (3.4).

That's a solid number against a great opponent. There's also a significant power-play edge for St. Louis in this one, which always helps for the team total.

The Blues have an above-average power-play scoring rate in their past 10, and Montreal is averaging the seventh-most penalties per game and the fourth-worst penalty kill rate.

Put it all together, and I like St. Louis to pour on goals tonight. You'd like better odds, but I'm willing to bet this straight.

Best Bet: Over 3.5 goals, excluding OT (-135 DK)

Favorite Goal-Scorer: Vladimir Tarasenko

Tarasenko has four goals in his last four games and has been one of the steadiest for road points on the Blues.

The last away game for Tarasenko saw three points and two goals to go along with 10 shot attempts.

Operating at a high volume and on the top power-play line, I think Tarasenko offers us great value tonight to score.

Goal odds: +184 (FD)

New York Rangers

The Rangers were a bit rusty in their first game back after a two-week break, so I'm banking on a return to their scoring ways tonight.

In their past 10 games at home, New York is averaging 3.6 goals per game. The Rangers will see a Detroit team that allows 4.0 goals per game in its last 10 on the road, the fourth-highest total in the league.

This is also another game that points the arrow to power-play opportunities. New York has the second-best power-play scoring rate, while Detroit owns the second-worst penalty kill and averages the fifth-most penalties per game.

That's about as good as it gets for power-play scoring, and I really like the value here for a Rangers team total.

Best Bet: Over 3.5 goals, including OT (-110 DK)

Favorite Goal-Scorer: Chris Kreider

There's something about Kreider at home, man. In his past 10 home games, Kreider has 10 goals. For the math majors, that's a one-goal-per-game average.

Kreider has three-plus shots on goal in seven of his last 10 and is on the top power-play line. I love this spot for Kreider tonight.

Goal odds: +126 (FD)

Washington Capitals

Washington has been rolling on the road lately, averaging 4.2 goals per game in its past five, the fourth-most in the NHL.

The Caps will get the pleasure of facing a Philadelphia team that allows a ton of shots and a decent amount of goals (3.3 average at home in its last 10).

Further supporting a Capitals onslaught is that Philly is rolling with its backup goalie tonight, Martin Jones. Jones is allowing 3.56 goals per game in the 17 games he's played this season.

Best Bet: Over 3.5 goals, excluding OT (+110 DK)

Favorite Goal-Scorer: Alex Ovechkin

I can't help but go a bit chalky here and bet on Ovechkin. There's better value to be had if you're betting these straight, but I like him as a parlay addition in my lotto ticket.

Ovi had two goals in his last game, which was on the road, and is putting up so many shots every single game.

In 64 games against the Flyers, Ovechkin has scored 42 goals. FanDuel gives us Ovi at plus-odds, so I'll bite.

Goal odds: +104 (FD)

Columbus Blue Jackets

I was extremely surprised to see that Columbus was available for us to bet at over 2.5 total goals.

I had the Blue Jackets marked as a maybe as I was prepping the picks, expecting to see a 3.5 line. At this number, I love it.

Some recent trends: In the past five road games, Columbus is averaging 3.8 goals per game (ninth-most). In Chicago's last five at home, the Blackhawks are allowing 3.8 goals per game, sixth-highest in the league.

With a potential power-play edge as well (CBJ: 11th-best PP rate, CHI fifth-worst PK), I think this is tremendous value.

Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals, excluding OT (-125 DK)

Favorite Goal-Scorer: Oliver Bjorkstrand

Bjorkstrand has been steady on the road lately with a goal in two of his past three games. He also has a solid floor of shot attempts, with four-plus attempts on goal in eight of his last 10 games.

He's very involved on the Blue Jackets' top line, so I like the odds he brings in this one.

Goal odds: +225 (FD)

Closing Thoughts

These are my four favorite spots for team totals tonight! It's a massive slate, and the numbers are speaking to me for these angles.

I'm parlaying the four goal-scorers on FanDuel, at +4155 odds. That is most definitely not the responsible approach, and you should find your own ways to attack these games. Points parlays off these spots have been a strategy I've deployed on Twitter since we started this series and will continue to do so.

Enjoy the evening, and good luck tonight.