During the 2021-22 NHL season, the Tampa Bay Lightning made significant buyer moves in an attempt to secure their third-straight Stanley Cup. On March 20, 2022, three days after their blockbuster trade for Brandon Hagel, they made another move to acquire Nick Paul from the Ottawa Senators. In return, the Senators received Mathieu Joseph and a 2024 fourth-round pick.
Paul had been with Ottawa for six seasons and was in the final year of his contract on the verge of free agency. Getting something in return made sense for the Senators. But how has this trade worked out for the Lightning? They didn’t win a Stanley Cup, but they found another long-term piece to their puzzle.
Nick Paul’s Time as a Bolt
Expectations weren’t high when Paul arrived in Tampa Bay. In 227 games with the Senators, he only had 29 goals and 66 total points. In contrast, his fellow new arrival, Hagel, had more goals (30) and nearly as many points (61) in 108 games with the Blackhawks. His stats were about the same as Joseph’s and he was a year older. While most likely saw him as added depth, the Lightning must have seen something more – and could get more out of him in their system. Paul fit into head coach Jon Cooper’s system immediately.
In 21 regular season games with the Lightning in 2022, Paul had 14 points in 21 games. He doubled his scoring pace, increasing his goals per game from .305 to .667. Looking at an advanced stat, his offensive points shares (OPS) with the Senators that season was zero. In his short time with the Lightning that same season, he had an OPS of 1.0. On top of that, his defensive points share (DPS) was 0.4 in 21 games. While he had a 0.7 DPS in Ottawa, this was over 59 games. His performance with the Lightning put him on pace for a 1.2 DPS in 59 games. He fit into the system like a cog in a machine.
His pace slowed in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, but he made his moments count. He only had five goals in 23 games, but two of those were game-winning goals, including one in Game 7 against the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Paul’s offensive production the following season was nearly identical. He had 32 points for the second straight year as well as an OPS of 1.0 once again. However, his defensive play continued to play a major role. His DPS was a career-high 1.9. However, this season, Paul’s offensive role has increased in favor of his defense. In 61 games, he matched his exact 2022-23 numbers that he reached in 80 games. If he plays 80 games again this season, he would reach 22 goals and 41 points.
At 28, his ceiling is not much higher realistically. That being said, having a consistent 20-goal scorer who tallies 50 or so points a season is valuable for the Lightning. The Lightning and Paul both have a similar idea of what his value is to the team. Wonder how this can be concluded? Let’s look at the contract he signed following the 2021-22 season. He signed a seven-year, $22.5 million deal – the average annual value (AAV) is $3.15 million. He is seen as someone who can contribute for a long time but will likely have limits to what he can do – he won’t be breaking out and putting up star numbers. However, he is a good hockey player who will be a key member of the Lightning for the rest of the decade.
How the Senators’ Returns Look
Mathieu Joseph remains a member of the Senators. He has 29 points in 47 games this season. It’s a pace that’s not far off from Paul’s. His cap hit is also about the same. He is in year two of a four-year deal he signed with the Senators with an AAV of $2.95 million.
Joseph arguably is in the same situation as Paul. The change of scenery did him some good. He had 12 points in his first 11 games with the Senators – this is the number of games he played the season he was traded. His scoring fell off in 2022-23, 18 points in 59 games, but it’s rallied. Last season, it would’ve been clear the Lightning won the trade. But now, it’s fair to say it is a win-win. Both guys signed extensions and are part of their respective team’s long-term plans.
Oh, and just to point this out, Joseph scored two goals against the Lightning recently. Meanwhile, Paul has zero points against the Senators this season.
The Senators still have the draft pick to use. It’ll be a long time before we know if this pick becomes anything for the Senators. If the pick hits, the scales have a shot at tipping in the favor of the Senators. If it doesn’t, it would be hard to find someone on either end of the trade who is upset with this deal. Nothing beats a deal where everyone wins.
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