The Erik Karlsson trade that involved the Pittsburgh Penguins, San Jose Sharks, and Montreal Canadiens was well executed by two teams. The team that failed to get the value they should have from the blockbuster was the Sharks. Nine players and 12 pieces were part of the trade that saw Pittsburgh dump bad contracts and add the Norris Trophy winner from 2022-23, the Canadiens move a bad contract and get assets they can flip, and the Sharks fail miserably.
This brings us to the Edmonton Oilers and how they might have fit into all of this. Though nothing was confirmed, the Oilers were believed to be in on Karlsson at one time over the past year. Things could have changed after the team acquired Mattias Ekholm, but they are two very different players that bring much different elements to their teams. One thing is for sure, the Oilers weren’t going to add Karlsson at the 2023 trade deadline after already picking up a $6 million AAV defenceman.
This offseason is a little different. The Oilers lost a few players and gained a few other players. Overall, it is relatively quiet, but they had to get a couple of signings done that take up cap space. The Oilers will be right up against the cap when they eventually sign Evan Bouchard to a bridge deal, but lack of cap space should not be an excuse to not make more moves to make the team even better, especially while in the window to win.
The Penguins were over the cap, had four contracts that weren’t ideal that they moved, and it only cost them a top-10 protected first-round pick in 2024 and a second-round pick in 2025. Plus, they got a 2026 third-round pick in return…to get a defenceman who put up 100 points last season on the fourth-worst team in the league.
Comparing Cost of Karlsson to What Oilers Could Have Done
There is some criticism about the move Kyle Dubas made to get the 2023 Norris Trophy winner and 100-point scorer, seeing as he has a large contract, four years left, and did struggle with injuries prior to last season. The positive side is that the Penguins are going for it and trying to win at least one more Stanley Cup with their core. Reworking their defence like this is a serious upgrade and gives them a real shot.
The Penguins were in a worse scenario cap-wise than the Oilers and managed to move unwanted players and add tons of value. Jeff Petry didn’t work out and was shipped off, they didn’t need Casey DeSmith after they signed Alex Nedeljkovic for cheaper in free agency, Mikael Granlund was a bad trade deadline acquisition that likely wouldn’t have worked out, and Jan Rutta was overpaid for the spot in the lineup he would’ve held this season.
Looking at draft picks, all it cost was a first and a second rounder while getting back a third round pick. The Oilers own their first and second-round picks this year and don’t have a third, so it would’ve worked out perfectly. Now, the cap situation would have been a bit tricky, but not impossible. Although the Sharks only held onto $1.5 million AAV and didn’t necessarily want to retain much more, it wasn’t a set number and would have been able to be swayed with another asset.
In comparison, the Oilers would have had to move Jack Campbell ($5 million AAV), Cody Ceci ($3.25 million AAV), and maybe even Warren Foegele ($2.75 million AAV), although the latter would be a piece the Oilers wouldn’t be sold on moving unless they had to (from “Lowetide: Who could be the Oilers’ playoff Fernando Pisani this year?”, The Athletic, Apr. 12, 2023).
Without trading Foegele, the Oilers would have moved out $8.25 million AAV. I’m sure the Oilers could have wiggled the cap retention down lower as well. The Penguins, in fact, only had to retain salary on Petry (25 percent) and ended up younger and with $3 million freed up. In what was a major bind the Penguins were in trying to find a way to upgrade and move contracts, it was all executed perfectly, in my opinion.
Should the Oilers Have Been More Serious on Karlsson?
Now for the question, should the Oilers have been more serious about pursuing Karlsson after the cost has been broken down and compared above? The players and trade that would have seen Karlsson become an Oiler is, of course, hypothetical. But if the Penguins pulled it off, the Oilers could have as well if they really wanted to. The Sharks are selling low on their stars.
The Oilers had the questionable and somewhat unwanted players on larger contracts that could have gotten moved out in the deal, the draft picks necessary to match what the Penguins did, and arguably fewer players to move out to the Sharks or a third team.
This would have impacted Bouchard, as there would have been a battle in his prime years to break out for power-play time, where he thrived last season with the opportunity. Unlike Letang, who was willing to give up playing time and power-play time, Bouchard is still without a contract, and that might have affected his thought process and ability to bloom into a number one offensive defenceman with the Oilers (from “Evan Bouchard now has his chance to shine with Ekholm — and without Barrie”, Edmonton Journal, Mar. 1, 2023). Karlsson is 33 years old, and the last thing a Stanley Cup contender like the Oilers need is an untimely injury or a rapid decline if he was acquired.
I think with the pieces that were moved that I suggested above, it would have been a risk worth taking to win now. A puck-moving defenceman who doubled any Oilers’ defenceman in points last season and who is also very fast would fit in perfectly on the highest-scoring team in the NHL. Unfortunately, we will never know, and the Oilers must move on to the next potential game-changing move they can make to upgrade.
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