The Pittsburgh Penguins are in uncharted waters in the 2023-24 season. After nearly 20 straight seasons of contending, the Penguins are suddenly on the verge of missing their second straight postseason. While they are still within earshot of a playoff berth, the writing is on the wall for this organization, and it reads clearly: the Penguins aren’t contenders anymore.
Because of this uncomfortable truth, the Penguins have a decision to make regarding one of their most talented players. Forward Jake Guentzel is a pending free agent, in the middle of a possible 40-goal season, and looking for a lengthy contract extension.
It seems obvious to hammer out a new deal with one of their best players. With an aging core and a lack of talent in the pipeline, however, the Penguins have their best opportunity to kickstart a rebuild. It’s a decision that won’t be popular, but the Penguins must trade Guentzel.
The Return
The Penguins have not had a coveted, high-skill player they were willing to deal since before Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin's first Stanley Cup. It makes complete sense why there is such pushback from the organization and fans alike to make such a drastic move. Let’s face it, the Penguins have one of the worst prospect pools in the NHL. With the exception of a handful, their developing players consist of future bottom-six forwards and third-pairing defensemen.
Trading Guentzel would give this organization a desperately needed injection of youth. For a point of comparison, the Calgary Flames just flipped Elias Lindholm for a proven 15-goal scorer in Andrei Kuzmenko, two prospects with NHL potential, and a 2024 first-round pick. Lindholm has one 40-goal season and two more 25-goal seasons, compared to Guentzel's multiple 40-goal seasons. And that doesn't take into consideration the current pace he's on this season.
What that means for Pittsburgh is they could ask for a king's ransom for Guentzel, and it's likely they'd get it. The value of a 90-point forward with years left in his prime is worth at least an NHL player with a controllable contract, a high-end prospect, a 2024 first-round pick, and at least one other asset. When is the last time the Penguins acquired such a haul?
Why Keep Guentzel?
This idea of the Penguins' championship window remaining ever so cracked in the waning years of Crosby and Malkin is a fallacy. Sure, they can sneak into the playoffs, but does anyone consider this team a true threat? The truth is they are a team trending downward, and they will only get worse over the next few years. That's the price you pay for 20 years of winning and mortgaging the future.
Guentzel is 29 years old and is rightly looking for a long-term extension when this season concludes. When he signed his first contract following the expiration of his entry-level deal, he took a hometown discount. That won't happen again as Guentzel looks to sign his big ticket this summer. It's his right, and he deserves to make north of $10 million annually, given the current market value of scoring wingers.
If the Penguins were a piece away from the Stanley Cup, just a bottom-pairing defender or third-line winger away from being the complete team, then you go all in and persuade Guentzel to sign another contract in Pittsburgh. It's a championship mentality and it's paid dividends for the Penguins' organization since 2005. But what if you're a team that is more likely to win the first overall pick than the Stanley Cup between now and 2030?
If the Penguins did give Guentzel the deal he is looking for, they'd be tying themselves to another veteran for far too many seasons. In addition, they'd devote vital cap space, space they could take advantage of to acquire more draft capital to expedite their pending rebuilding process.
This isn't the position any organization wants to be in. Who wants to admit their time has passed them by? Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, their championship window, whether they admit this publicly or not, is closed. They don't need to extend him, or ride out the season and watch him leave for nothing, the Penguins need to trade Guentzel before the trade deadline.
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