The Ryan Graves story with the Pittsburgh Penguins continues to be a trainwreck. The 28-year-old defenseman took under half a season to become the biggest question mark on the roster. Unfortunately, the Penguins are limited in what they can do to minimize his effect.
The latest chapter of the Graves saga was a mid-game demotion during a 4-3 Penguins loss to the Washington Capitals. Graves was on the ice for three of four Capitals goals in the first period, including a centering pass that Graves deflected into his net.
Mike Sullivan had seen enough, demoting Graves to the third pairing and giving him seven shifts through the remaining two periods. That demotion continued during practice today when Graves rotated with Chad Ruhwedel and Ryan Shea on the third pairing.
The Penguins promoted P.O. Joseph to the second pair. Joseph came into this season with the full faith of the coaching staff, but injuries and inconsistent play have forced him to the press box in 27 of the last 32 games. The 24-year-old blueliner will seemingly get an opportunity alongside Erik Karlsson over at least the next few games.
As for Graves, the Penguins haven't given up on him yet. Following the last game, Mike Sullivan reinforced the coaching staff's belief that Graves has more to give.
“We’re going to rely on him moving forward,” Sullivan said. “We’re going to work with him and try to see what we can do to keep his game simple. I think that’s when he’s at his best. When he defends hard and controls the net front."
Part of that work appears to be a short-term reduction of his role with the team. If Joseph thrives with Karlsson, Graves may find himself on the third pairing longer term. If Joseph falters, the Penguins will not have many options, especially with John Ludvig heading to long-term injured reserve.
Therefore, Graves may be back in the top four soon. Whenever that happens, it should not be with Karlsson.
The Penguins have tried two combinations in their defensive top four this season, and the Graves-Karlsson pairing has produced a -1 goal differential at 5v5. Comparatively, the Marcus Pettersson-Karlsson duo has a +14 goal differential at 5v5.
Karlsson's underlying numbers are also substantially better when playing with Pettersson. Kris Letang has also experienced a bump in goal differential (from +3 to +7) since Graves moved off his line.
The difference is in the ability of the right-handed defensemen. Letang has proven capable of adjusting his game to lessen any negative impact from Graves when the two share the ice. Karlsson plays the same high-risk style, leaving Graves as the last line of defense and exasperating the issues for both players.
Even underlying numbers suggest Letang is better with Graves next to him this season. In 378 minutes of 5v5 ice time with Graves, Letang has 50.87% of the expected goals and 49.24% of the scoring chances. With Pettersson, those numbers fall to 45.14% and 44.83%, according to Natural Stat Trick.
It may not be the perfect situation, but if the Penguins need to turn back Ryan Graves as a top-four defenseman, they are best served playing him with Kris Letang.
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