As the coronavirus crisis wears on, it seems more likely that the NHL will not return to action anytime soon. When play resumes — if it does — it will almost certainly not be the full remaining regular-season schedule. That lost revenue is expected to impact the 2020-21 salary cap, perhaps even keeping the current $81.5M upper limit in place.
Given that teams expected an increase, initially projected to be between $84M and $88.2M, this stagnation could have a harsh impact on a number of clubs’ cap situations.
As such, many expect that compliance buyouts will return in some form to ease that pain. These buyouts, which do not count against the salary cap, would allow for teams to open up space they otherwise expected from a cap increase.
Here is a rundown of the top compliance buyout candidates for the first third of NHL teams:
Anaheim Ducks: Adam Henrique, center
The first team on the list is a tough call. Henrique has had a good season and the Ducks are not in significant cap trouble. However, with a long list of promising forward prospects and a defense that needs work, the team could opt to move on from the veteran forward and create roster space and cap flexibility. Henrique, 30, is signed for four more years at $5.825M.
Arizona Coyotes: Phil Kessel, right wing
The Coyotes are in one of the worst positions in the league in terms of cap space, so the team would have to use a compliance buyout if the opportunity is offered to them. Kessel has been a relative bust in his first season with the Coyotes and is signed for two more years at $6.8M. He certainly has the potential to improve in year two, but Arizona may not have the luxury of taking the chance. The added cap space would be a major relief.
Boston Bruins: John Moore, defenseman
Given the Bruins’ depth on defense in veteran assets and budding prospects, as well as Moore’s relegation to a backup role on the Boston blueline, he has become an expendable asset — especially If Zdeno Chara and Torey Krug are back next season. Moore is signed longer than any current Bruins defenseman, with three years and $8.25M remaining, but the team’s commitment to him seems less than any of his fellow blueliners.
Buffalo Sabres: Kyle Okposo, right wing
Unfortunately for the Sabres, the Okposo signing in 2016 has never panned out. His production dropped from 64 points with the New York Islanders in 2015-16 to just 45 points in his first year in Buffalo, and that total has gone down in every year since. Okposo was on pace for just 24 points this season and may not even reach that mark. The Sabres would be quick to part ways with Okposo, who has three years at $6M annually left on his contract, taking up valuable cap space that the team needs to use to improve the rest of its roster.
Calgary Flames: Milan Lucic, left wing
Even with the salary being retained by the Edmonton Oilers on Lucic’s contract, his $5.25M cap hit is still a pain for the Flames. The veteran power forward is not going to score 20-plus goals or 50-plus points in a season ever again and Calgary could do more with the added cap space over the next three years.
Carolina Hurricanes: Jake Gardiner, defenseman
For whatever reason, the Gardiner signing simply has not worked as the Hurricanes had hoped. Gardiner, signed late last summer at a relative discount, has been a fine addition, but hasn’t been the point producer and power-play ace Carolina had hoped for. Following the deadline addition of Brady Skjei to arguably the deepest blueline in the NHL, Gardiner and his remaining three years and $12.15M are expendable.
Chicago Blackhawks: Brent Seabrook, defenseman
One of the more obvious choices on this list, Seabrook’s contract may be the worst in the NHL right now. The 34-year-old has four years left at $6.875M AAV on an eight-year, $55M deal signed in 2015. Over the term of the contract, Seabrook has declined rapidly and is a shell of his former self, regardless of health. The cap-strapped Blackhawks would not think twice about moving on.
Colorado Avalanche: Erik Johnson, defenseman
Johnson is a well-liked and well-respected longtime member of the Avalanche. However, as time has gone on the team has surrounded him with better, younger and more affordable blueline options. As valuable as Johnson’s experience and leadership may be, he is an expendable piece without a clear future role. Signed through 2022-23 at a $6M cap hit, Johnson is an expensive piece to keep around just for the intangibles. The Avs could look to use this opportunity to clear some space for some anticipated big game hunting this off-season.
Columbus Blue Jackets: Alexander Wennberg, center
Blue Jackets fans have been calling for Wennberg’s head for years now and may finally get their wish. The once-promising young forward turned a 59-point 2016-17 season into a six-year, $29.4M contract and then proceeded to regress immensely over the past few seasons instead of continuing to improve as expected. With another three years left at $4.9M per, Wennberg doesn’t seem likely to get back to a level of play that would warrant his current cap hit and Columbus could move on, even from a 25-year-old homegrown product.
Dallas Stars: Andrew Cogliano, left wing
The Stars are a team with numerous big names and long contracts, but their most inefficient name might be Cogliano. Rather than using a buyout to move a heavy cap hit, Dallas could opt to trim the fat by removing a player that hasn’t been a good fit. Cogliano has showed that his six points in 32 games last season with the Stars following a trade from Anaheim was not a fluke; he followed it up with 14 points through 68 games this season. Expecting Cogliano to get back to 30-plus points in 2020-21 in his final year at $3.25M seems hopeful at best. Dallas could use that space elsewhere with some lineup holes to fill this summer.
Stay tuned for Part II coming soon.
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