Adam Fox is not the prototypical defenseman. He is undersized at 5-foot-11 and 182 pounds. He doesn’t possess the same speed as Cale Makar or the booming slapshot of Victor Hedman. Yet, Fox just completed his fourth NHL season, during which he has been a finalist for the Norris Trophy twice, winning the award once back in 2020-21.
Entering the 2023-24 season, Fox seems poised to take another step forward as he looks to benefit from the coaching change and Peter Laviolette. The new staff will be Fox’s third since he debuted with the New York Rangers in 2019-20. With long-time NHL defenseman Phil Housley joining Laviolette, Fox will benefit significantly from the teaching and structure that will come with it.
Housley is a Hall of Famer, a former Norris Trophy finalist, and the leading scorer amongst defensemen in a season with 97 points in 1992-93. His style of play and insight will mesh nicely with Fox, arguably the best all-around defenseman in the game today. The Rangers made significant changes in their coaching philosophy with their new hirings.
Laviolette and Housley bring a more structured and old-fashioned approach, hopefully rounding out the Rangers’ game and making them more competitive at even strength. Assistant coaches Dan Muse and Michael Peca will bring a fresh voice to the locker room, emphasizing analytics and two-way hockey more considerably.
The Rangers seem poised for a philosophy change next season, and with that change, I see Fox’s game going to another level. He is already elite, and the structure being added to the Rangers’ game will allow him to do what he does best, with more support than he has had in past seasons.
Why Fox Will Set Career High in Points in 2023-24
During the Game 7 loss against the New Jersey Devils during the first round of the 2023 Postseason, it was Fox who uncharacteristically turned the puck over while on the power-play, leading to Michael McLeod’s opening shorthanded tally and game-winner.
Like the rest of the Rangers, Fox was not immune to the letdown that happened after they took a 2-0 series lead, but it was rare to see him look normal and not like the superhuman defenseman we see nightly. I have to believe there is still a massive chip on his shoulder from that Game 7 loss, which will push him to work even harder this offseason in preparation for next season.
Learning from Housley while utilizing his extraordinarily high hockey IQ will allow Fox to reach the point-per-game pace and maybe beyond. Adding in a new element of structure ushered in by Laviolette, he should also be able to find outlet passes easier than he has in the past, letting him move the puck quicker and jump into the rush.
We have seen numerous times where Fox gets the puck and has to utilize extreme patience and poise to wait for an open outlet pass. The Rangers’ lack of support through all three zones can sometimes put defensemen on an island, and Fox’s elusiveness alleviated many of those situations.
This season, a structured team will only enhance Fox’s abilities. Increasing five-on-five play is essential for the Rangers’ success, but it would also enhance Fox’s numbers. Last season, he had 34 points at five-on-five, behind only Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad, Vincent Trocheck, and Filip Chytil. With better balance and structure, those numbers will increase without a drop in his special teams’ production, and now he has become that point-per-game player.
Could a Partner Switch Boost Fox’s Numbers?
When a new coach takes the reins of a franchise, he usually wants to implement changes and leave his mark. Those changes may not be so drastic with the group Laviolette has adapted with the Rangers, but there is a move that would spark some conversation on defense.
Since becoming regulars in 2019-20, Ryan Lindgren and Fox have been inseparable. They complement each other well, forming a clear top pairing in the NHL. When one misses time, the other does not look the same, but last season, we saw K’Andre Miller on Fox’s left side at times, and the results were outstanding.
In 894:50 of five-on-five time on ice (TOI), the Lindgren-Fox pairing had a Corsi-For percentage (CF%) of 54.84, per Natural Stat Trick. Although a smaller sample size, Miller and Fox posted a 65.93 CF% in 115:17 TOI, over a 10 percent improvement. That mark would have been the best among all the NHL’s defensive pairs, with a minimum of 100 minutes played together.
The Miller and Fox numbers are astounding. They had a goals for percentage (GF%) of 66.67, an expected goals for percentage (xGF%) of 63.21, and a high danger chances for percentage (HDCF%) of 63.64%. In comparison with the Lindgren-Fox pairing, which posted a GF% of 61.11, an xGF% of 54.25, and a HDCF% of 55, the Miller-Fox pair was superior in every category.
Granted, the ebbs and flows of an 82-game season would cause those numbers to fluctuate, but essentially, the Rangers have one of the best five-on-five defensive pairings in the NHL and don’t even utilize it. If Laviolette makes the change, putting Miller on the top pair with Fox, I think both players’ stats will skyrocket.
If the goal is to improve the five-on-five play, this pairing will drastically increase those numbers while allowing Fox to have a career year.
Fox will look to take the Rangers on a much longer playoff run this season while adding his name to the Norris ballot again for the third time in five years. He will have a career season under a new system and potentially with a new partner.
My Prediction: Fox will finish with 15 goals, 71 assists, and 86 points in 2023-24.
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