Jonathan Marchessault and Chandler Stephenson are unrestricted free agents after the 2023-24 season. It is not a certainty that extensions will be successfully negotiated to retain one, or both of them.
Marchessault and Stephenson combine for a salary cap hit of $8.75 million in 2023-24. Extensions for Marchessault and Stephenson will be tricky to negotiate. Both are Stanley Cup Champions. Marchessault is a Conn Smyth winner. Stephenson has outperformed his contract since the day he signed an extension in Vegas.
Market value for Marchessault and Stephenson: Marchessault is in the final year of his 6 year, $30 million contract. The Conn Smythe winner can expect offers in the four years, $20 million range should he hit the open market.
Stephenson is in the final year of his 4 year, $11 million contract. A reasonable offer that Stephenson could expect would be a four year deal worth $20 million should he hit the open market.
Marchessault will be 33 years old when his current contract expires. Stephenson will be 30 years old when his contract expires.
The combined AAV for Stephenson and Marchessault would be $11.5 million if the Golden Knights extended both for fair market value. Of course Marchessault and Stephenson could consider giving the Golden Knights a home-team discount.
Is it a good idea to have nearly $27 million of salary cap space tied up to four forwards age 30 or greater?
Elias Pettersson: Pettersson is going to be the shiniest new toy if he goes to free agency. That makes him a borderline lock to join the Golden Knights in 2024.
Pettersson broke out in dramatic fashion last season with 102 points in 80 games. The 24 year old had 68 points in 80 games in the previous season.
The market for Pettersson will not be cheap. Another 100 point season could push his AAV to $10 million.
The pitch: The salary cap is projected to go up by $4.2 million in the 2024-25 season and $4.5 million the following season.
Stephenson and Marchessault combine for a salary cap hit of $8.75 million in 2023-24. Their market value in 2024-25 elevates to $11.5 million. That eats up $2.75 million of the $4.2 million cap increase.
Signing Pettersson for up to a $10 million AAV leaves the Golden Knights the entire $4.2 million salary cap increase to work with.
Acknowledge reality: Is it worth giving raises to players who are close to the point of diminishing returns? How much better can Marchessault and Stephenson possibly perform on ice? They are at their ceilings. Pettersson is just starting his prime.
McCrimmon felt that the younger Ivan Barbashev was the better long-term investment than the older Reilly Smith.
Just imagine for a moment a team with Jack Eichel and Pettersson as their top-two centers.
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