The Toronto Maple Leafs have closed out the series against the Ottawa Senators, winning the series 4–2. For some Maple Leafs fans, the “real” playoffs start against the Florida Panthers in the coming days. The reigning Stanley Cup champions look perhaps even better with the additions of Seth Jones and Brad Marchand at the trade deadline.
While the Maple Leafs are the underdogs in the series, teams shouldn’t sleep on them. Outside of a couple of games this year, notably Game 5 against the Senators, the Maple Leafs look like a different team from years past. The Maple Leafs will have to continue playing Craig Berube hockey to beat the Panthers.
Here are the keys to victory over the Panthers if you’re the Maple Leafs.
The Core Four needs to show up
It goes without saying that in any game where your best players do not show up, it’s harder to win that game. This is true especially in the playoffs, and this is what Maple Leafs fans have been used to for eight years. However, this year was different for once.
The Core Four showed up in Round 1 against the Senators:
Table 1. Showing the distribution of points among the Maple Leafs’ Core Four players in the first round against the Ottawa Senators.
| Player | Goals | Assists | Total Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| William Nylander | 3 | 6 | 9 |
| Mitch Marner | 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Auston Matthews | 2 | 5 | 7 |
| John Tavares | 3 | 2 | 5 |
This is such a stark contrast to previous playoff series. But what about Games five through 7? As we noted in our 4–0 Game 5 loss post-game, it’s pretty bad:
Table 2. Table showing the distribution of points by the Maple Leafs’ Core four in games 5, 6, and seven of a playoff series from 2019 to Game 5, 2025.
| Player | Games Played | Goals | Assists | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Nylander | 16 | 6 | 7 | 13 |
| Auston Matthews | 14 | 6 | 4 | 10 |
| John Tavares | 13 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| Mitch Marner | 16 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
This year, the script has been rewritten (so far). The Core Four had three goals and two assists in the 4–2 win against the Senators in Game 6 to close out the series. They scored over 17% of their collective goal totals in Games 5–7 in the last six years in Game 6 against the Senators.
Granted, their second-round opponent is the Florida Panthers, a better team than the Senators. However, we’ve been saying for years that the Maple Leafs will only go as far as their superstars take them. And this is true. But so far this year, they have been holding up their end of the bargain.
The apprentice must surpass the master in the goaltender duel
Outside of the lack of scoring, the Maple Leafs faced criticism over the years for a lack of timely saves. This was evident in the last matchup against the Panthers in the 2023 playoffs. General manager Brad Treliving took a gamble signing Anthony Stolarz to a two-year, $2.5M AAV deal this past offseason. It was a phenomenal signing.
Stolarz finished the year with a league-leading SV% of .926 and a goals-against average of 2.14. A spectacular season for a goaltender who has only played a career high of 28 games in a single season. Stolarz played only one playoff game with the Panthers last season en route to their Stanley Cup victory, and did not look good in that game. Fortunately for the Panthers, Stolarz’s “mentor” Sergei Bobrovsky returned to form, and the rest is history.
After the first round of the playoffs, both Stolarz and Bobrovsky are even from a statistical perspective in a few categories:
Table 3. Table showing the comparison between Anthony Stolarz and Sergei Bobrovsky after the first round of the playoffs.
| Goaltender | Goals-Against Average | Save Percentage | Shutouts | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Stolarz | 2.21 | .901 | 0 | 128 |
| Sergei Bobrovsky | 2.21 | .901 | 1 | 100 |
Both goaltenders are very comparable, having the same GAA and SV% after the first round of the playoffs. However, Bobrovsky has perhaps a slight edge with one shutout and facing fewer shots. Among goaltenders who have played at least five games, other than Connor Hellebuyck, Bobrovsky has faced the second-fewest number of shots in the first round. Stolarz has faced more shots, naturally, as the Senators forced Game 6.
However, Stolarz has been a solid goaltender all year, and especially in Round 1 of the playoffs. He made timely saves to keep the Maple Leafs in Games 2 and 3. This is something that will need to continue if the Maple Leafs want to have a chance against the Panthers. Either way, the goaltending duel between master and apprentice is set to begin soon.
Special teams need to produce
The Maple Leafs will need to ensure their power play remains hot. We all know in playoff hockey that the whistles are thrown so far down to the Earth’s mantle. But when you get those few and far between opportunities, you must capitalize.
One of the stories coming out of the first round is that the Maple Leafs’ power play has awoken. Toronto scored six power play goals against the Senators. Four came from the Core Four, and two came from Matthew Knies. The Maple Leafs also allowed two shorthanded goals against in back-to-back games. These kinds of mistakes did not cost the Leafs this time, but Florida is a different kind of…Cat.
The penalty kill also needs to be solid. They allowed three power play goals against the Senators. In contrast to last year, they allowed the Boston Bruins to score six power play goals themselves. This team is a different team than last year, but it goes to show that special teams can, and often is, the difference maker in the playoffs.
Matching the Panthers’ game
We know the Panthers in general, but specifically, Brad Marchand, Sam Bennett, and Matthew Tkachuk are going to play you through the boards. They also have skill in the offensive zone. However, for the Maple Leafs to be successful, they will need to counter the Panthers’ top lines. Specifically with the emergence of the third line of Steven Lorentz–Scott Laughton–Calle Jarnkrok, this line will likely be tasked with shutting down the Tkachuk line.
While this line has not scored yet, they don’t necessarily need to. Like this line did against the Senators’ top lines, they just have to spend time in the offensive zone and tire them out. This line has shown to take the dump-and-chase game seriously, heavily punishing players in the opposing team’s zone. Lorentz and Jarnkrok do provide some offensive creativity, and with more games, perhaps they will unlock something. The beauty about the playoffs is that anything can happen.
The Maple Leafs will have to match the Panthers’ physicality. The additions on the back-end, Brandon Carlo and Chris Tanev, with the emergence of Simon Benoit, and big hitter Jake McCabe, the Maple Leafs do have a chance in this category. The balance is doing just enough to aggravate the opposing players, but not enough to put your team shorthanded. This is a skill the Leafs should have acquired years ago, and it’s time they start using it.
Mindset
Some would say, “The other key is good defence.” While this is true, the other big issues that have plagued the Maple Leafs more than defence in the playoffs have been a lack of scoring, particularly from the superstars, and receiving timely saves. We know with the additions of Brandon Carlo and Chris Tanev, this defence corps has made this team different this year. However, what has largely prevented this core from progressing is the mindset.
This is the last key to victory against the Panthers. That is, playing to win and not playing not to lose. We saw how dominating the Maple Leafs were against the Senators in the first three games of the first round. However, what happened in Game 4, and more so in Game 5 and a large part of Game 6, was the shaky confidence. The Maple Leafs need to build on their first-round victory and approach the Panthers as they did at the beginning of the Battle of Ontario.
If the Maple Leafs can enforce their will on their opponent, or have the “killer instinct” as it’s often referred to, then they are as good as anyone. Winning the Atlantic Division and going up 3–0 against the Senators is proof of this mentality. It has just been the consistency that has been the issue. Rather than sit back on a lead, continue to push for more. Force players to make quick decisions under pressure. Finish your checks.
Easier said than done when you’re about to face the reigning Stanley Cup champions, who are likely going to take a pound of flesh in each game. Time will tell how the Maple Leafs will do. However, if this team is truly different this year, then they should not be worried but instead embrace the chance to rewrite history.
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