Three shot props to power your Saturday in the NHL
We're back on the NHL grind on a packed Saturday of puck. I often find these bigger slates make it easier to pick out your absolute favorite spots. Three rose above the rest for me as I dug through the day.
1u: Connor McDavid over 3.5 SOG (-110 DK)
I'd actually be interested in looking at McDavid 5+ also here. This seems like a nice time to back McDavid to get on the right side of his shot prop. Tampa is a vulnerable opponent here on the defensive end, allowing nearly 34 shots per game at home this season.
McDavid is over this line just four times this year, which is a pretty shocking sentence to write for one of the NHL's best.
Why do I like him today? I'm seeing a slight uptick in McDavid's volume since the coaching change, attempting 13 shots in his past two games and piling up eight SOG.
That attempts line is what I want to play with here. He has 6+ attempts in two straight, and when he's operating with that type of volume, he's over this 3.5 line in 93 of his last 114 games, an 82% rate. He's finished with 5+ SOG in 56% of those games, by the way.
Oh, and McDavid's last four games against the Lightning have seen SOG totals of five, seven, five and six, averaging 8.8 attempts/game.
1u: Mackenzie Weegar over 2.5 SOG (+135 DK)
I had to dig into Calgary here. They're averaging 35.6 shots per game at home this season while the Islanders are allowing 35.7 shots per game on the road, the clearest indication of the day that shots are about to be flowing.
Mackenzie Weegar caught the eye, and while I've been shy to attack defensemen SOG props this season, it seems this situation calls for it.
Weegar at home has been a volume monster for the Flames, averaging eight attempts/game in his last five, going over this 2.5 line four times. Two of those past three games saw Weegar pummel in 10+ attempts at net.
I like that to pay off here against an Islanders team allowing the second-most shots per game to defensemen. Weegar has hit this prop in two straight against New York, tallying eight SOG on 20 attempts.
.75u: Brad Marchand over 3.5 SOG (+120 ESPN)
Boston should have no issues finding offense here hosting Montreal, a team allowing 32.2 shots per game on the road and 3.6 power-play opportunities per game over their past 20 days.
Those penalty problems are what really make Brad Marchand all the more interesting to me. Over the past 10 games, Marchand is tied with David Pastrnak with 13 PP shots for most on the Bruins.
Marchand is over this 3.5 line in six of his last seven games, which includes a five-SOG game against these Canadiens.
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