Two SOG props for Game 2 of Florida-Carolina
Game 1 between Florida-Carolina was a doozy, needing four full overtimes to find a winner. While that buoys the data to analyze, I'm keeping it simple and going back to a pair of reads that came through for me to start the series.
Sebastian Aho over 2.5 SOG (-120 DK)
So, Sebastian Aho was a sweaty win in Game 1, as it took some overtime for him to deliver on his shots. While that may trouble some, I'm fine to go right back to him, and it isn't because he finished the first game with six SOG on 18 attempts, most of those came in OT.
The reason I backed Aho in Game 1 was his shot volume, and how his attempts and lack of hits in Round 2 had me seeing a guy that seemed due.
Aho has had 5+ shot attempts in six straight at home now and all four games against Florida this season. Over the past two seasons, when the Carolina center finds that level of volume, he's gone over 2.5 shots at a 74% rate.
I'm banking on some tired defenses tonight that open up shooting lanes for both sides, so I'm going right back to the ship on Aho.
Aleksander Barkov over 2.5 SOG (-118 FD)
I also bet on Aleksander Barkov in Game 1, and curiously, he covered in regulation and never got another SOG in any of the four overtimes.
That's a bit strange, but hey, he scored and got his shots by the second period, so why in the world would I not return to the guy tonight?
My basis for backing Barkov was simple: the guy loves Carolina. He's now gone over 2.5 shots against them in 12 of his past 14 meetings, averaging 4.0 SOG/game in his last 10 against them.
Barkov has tallied 3+ shots in four of his last five on the road, so let's extend that streak here.
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