Who are the Panthers thankful for?
Tkachuk has not been himself thus far this season, but it is hard to fault him after he suffered a broken sternum in game 4 of the Stanley Cup finals in June. He valiantly tried to play in game 5 but could only take a few shifts before he had to shut himself down. He went through rehabilitation and recovery in the summer and although he was ready for training camp, it’s hard to believe that he had a full summer of his regular training regimen.
Tkachuk hasn’t been bad this year, he just hasn’t lived up to the level of play he’s shown over the past few seasons when he has been regularly in the conversation for league MVP. The 26-year-old has just five goals and 15 assists in 27 games thus far this season but has continued to be a dominant force at even strength. Although his goal numbers aren’t what they’ve been the last two seasons, he continues to drive the play and is snake bit by a career-low shooting percentage of 4.8%. Tkachuk is a career 12.7% shooter, meaning that he should see a surge here in the coming months unless his broken sternum is still a cause for concern. That doesn’t appear to be the case though as Tkachuk continues to play with reckless abandon this season, as his hitting numbers are up considerably from last year.
Tkachuk is not only the on-ice leader of the Panthers, but he is also the heart and soul player that teams covet desperately. Many thought the Panthers had given up too much to acquire the Scottsdale, Arizona native from the Calgary Flames, but a year and a half after the trade it looks like an absolute heist by general manager Bill Zito.
What are the Panthers thankful for?
Pro Scouting
Over the last few years, not every trade the Panthers have made has worked out, but the bulk of them have been good, and several of them have been home runs.
As was mentioned earlier, the Tkachuk trade was an absolute thing of beauty for the Panthers, It was high profile and high risk, but some of their sneakier trades are almost as impressive.
Acquiring Sam Bennett from the Calgary Flames for Emil Heineman and a second-round pick was another well-crafted trade that ended up one-sided in favor of the Panthers. Another key move was the trade with the Buffalo Sabres to acquire Sam Reinhart who currently leads the team in scoring this season with 17 goals and 20 assists in 27 games. That trade could go either way though as Reinhart is a free agent at year’s end and Devon Levi has shown glimpses of being a star in the making, despite his struggles this season.
But one of the Panthers’ best moves was a different trade with the Sabres. One in which Florida acquired Brandon Montour for a 2021 third-round pick. Montour has started slowing this season with just two assists in 11 games, but like Tkachuk, he is returning from a severe injury. Montour was a key catalyst for the Panthers last season as he put up career numbers with 16 goals and 57 assists in 80 games. To cap it all off the 29-year-old had eight goals and five assists in 21 games during Florida’s surprise run to the Stanley Cup finals this past spring. His acquisition remains some of the Panthers’ best work the last few years, and credit goes to the team’s pro scouting who continue to identify diamonds in the rough.
What would the Panthers be even more thankful for?
A few contract extensions
The Panthers are headed into a summer of uncertainty as they do have several key free agents who could be difficult to get under contract long-term.
As mentioned earlier, Reinhart has been terrific this season. He is on pace for a career year and could eclipse 50 goals and 100 points for the first time in his career. The timing could not be better for the 28-year-old as he is just over six months away from hitting the open market. If he gets to market there is no telling how high the cap hit could be on a lucrative long-term deal, especially with the salary cap rising substantially for the first time since before the pandemic. The Panthers are the only team that can offer Reinhart an eighth year, but they do have other extensions to consider and may not be willing to go as high as they need to get a deal done.
Montour is another pending unrestricted free agent, and his negotiations are complicated by the wild variance in his play in the last few seasons. After having a career year last season, he has started slowing this year and may give the Panthers pause when it comes to negotiations. Florida might want to see more from Montour before locking him down long-term. However, he was invaluable to them last year, particularly during their playoff run, and if he can replicate that success this year, he may price himself out of Florida.
Lastly, Gustav Forsling is also just over six months away from being able to sign with any team in the league, and while he hasn’t matched the pace he set last year offensively, he is still a key driver of play and can play in all situations. Forsling remains one of the most underrated defensemen in the NHL, but that could change with his next contract. While he currently is playing under a deal that pays him just over $2.6MM annually, he should be able to double his cap hit on his next deal.
At 27 years old Forsling likely has a lot left to give and should be a priority for the Panthers. He blocks shots, kills penalties, can chip in offensively, and is terrific at even strength. The Panthers would be hard-pressed to replace the minutes he plays in free agency and will likely look to lock him up long-term.
What should be on the Panthers' holiday wish list?
A depth defenseman
It goes to show you how good this Panthers team is that their big need is a depth defenseman. An argument could be made that they use another center, but with Kevin Stenlund providing a decent defensive presence as the fourth-line center, we can table talk about the forwards and focus on the Panthers’ back end.
Uvis Balinskis has filled in admirably on the Panthers' third defensive paring as the 27-year-old rookie has played okay in heavily sheltered minutes for the team alongside Oliver Ekman-Larsson. Despite his decent play in a supporting role, the Panthers will likely need to improve their depth if they hope to make another deep run in the playoffs. Balinskis does have a physical element to his game but he isn’t overly big and can be pushed off the puck. He also appears uncomfortable playing on his offside, something he will probably have to do to remain in the Panthers lineup long-term.
Florida would do well to grab a depth right-shot defenseman, who can fill in for Balinskis on occasion, or takeover from him should he begin to falter as the season goes on.
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