It has been a few years since the Pittsburgh Penguins were considered a contender. A question has lingered throughout this time, one without an obvious answer. With longtime coach Mike Sullivan out the door, the question repeats once more, louder with each passing season. Where will the Penguins go from here? Let’s take a deeper look at what the Pens have to predict how they might proceed.
The current group’s legacy
Perhaps the biggest fulcrum of the Pens’ future lies with captain Sidney Crosby. Some might have an appetite for bold manoeuvres, surely launching into a more concerted rebuild. Ultimately, Crosby is due the final decision. Still one of the game’s top players, Crosby might be enough to keep the Penguins out of a top pick on his own. Still, his presence keeps the team attached to much of the core group.
Evgeni Malkin will be a pending UFA next season, entering the final year of his deal. There is a chance that Malkin elects to move on even if Crosby remains, but trading Crosby all but guarantees a departure from Malkin as well.
To a lesser extent, the same might be said for both Erik Karlsson and Kris Letang. Letang might be less appealing to other teams, while retaining salary on Karlsson would open up suitors. In this hypothetical, other established players would make sense to move as well, from Bryan Rust to Rickard Rakell.
Could the Pens retool on the fly?
While some might see this aggressive tank and rebuild as the quickest path to another championship window, it remains unlikely as long as Crosby stays put. There is a chance that Crosby is willing to ride out an aggressive rebuild to stay with the Pens. Most likely, President and General Manager Kyle Dubas will continue to try to walk both worlds, as he has been. Keeping some lineup respectability for Crosby and company might be seen as delaying the inevitable, and perhaps it is.
On the other hand, Dubas need only look to the Washington Capitals, as the rival team has managed to retool the team on the fly around Alexander Ovechkin. No two situations are exactly alike, but the Capitals’ successes might provide some insight into the undertaking.
While the team has not achieved much on the ice, the Pens have begun to compile a bevy of futures to work with. On top of their likely position in the background of the top 10 in the 2025 draft, the Pens have acquired an additional first-rounder from the New York Rangers, likely to be deferred until 2026. While their Rangers will look to be better next season, having another team’s unprotected first a year out is of immense value. The Rangers’ collapse might well continue.
More interesting is the clear strategy of compiling mid-round picks. The Pens have six second-round picks and eight third-round picks over the next three drafts. While these still might be used in trades, Dubas and amateur scouting director Wes Clark have had great success in the second round of the draft. Optimistically, these players might take four years to truly arrive as NHLers, giving the Penguins a huge influx of talent somewhere around the turn of the decade.
A focus on the future
Perhaps Crosby can remain effective and a Penguin until his mid-40s. While these reinforcements would be much needed at that time, they are unlikely to truly contribute to a Crosby-led team. They would, however, provide the Pens with a robust pipeline for a life after Crosby. A potential full-scale rebuild two to four years from now would be much more fruitful with such a prospect system. This might put the Pens in line for a shorter rebuild, needing only a few years of true tanking to become a young and exciting team on the rise.
While positional need should not be too big a factor lower in the draft, if at all, it might make some sense to prioritize defencemen and goalies with these picks. These positions often take longer to develop, so having a head start in these areas can go a long way when adding a high-end forward talent near the end of a rebuild.
Perhaps the early signs of this can already be seen. Owen Pickering and Harrison Brunicke lead the way as two of the more heralded Penguins prospects. The Penguins are currently short defencemen of their ilk, but it might still be years before they are upgrading the NHL blueline. Beyond that, Dubas and Clark seem to value hockey IQ and competitiveness as traits to target for drafting.
Essentially, the Penguins have built in some flexibility to accommodate Crosby. Long devoid of prospect talent, the Penguins can now make significant long-term investments while attempting to string together competent rosters for the twilight of Crosby’s career.
Young talent already in the Penguins locker room
The other area that Dubas has prioritized is taking swings on prospects, particularly forwards. Ville Koivunen and Rutger McGroarty stand out here, as both looked promising in late-season auditions. To an extent, there might be hope for Philip Tomasino and Vasiliy Ponomarev taking a step, as well as Vladislav Kolyachonok on defence. For the first time in years, the Pens have some hope for upside from internal development.
Any hope of competing with Crosby relies on big steps for several of these players. It extends beyond as well, as Conor Timmins and P. O. Joseph seem to have some untapped potential. Expecting a top-four defenceman and a couple top-six forwards from this group is ambitious, but not entirely unfathomable. Adding McGroarty and Koivunen to feature roles is requisite to any success in the near future.
Holes in the Penguins’ lineup
Unfortunately, the Pens have deficiencies that their youth alone cannot fix next season. While the forward group might have some hope, the blueline is lacking. The Pens have ample offensive talent on the blueline, including Karlsson, Letang, Joseph, Timmins, and even current UFA Matt Grzelcyk.
The group is missing some muscle, however. Grzelcyk is a willing defender, but limited in certain areas by his size. There are some promising signs from Timmins and Joseph, though too old for most to be waiting on much growth. Jack St. Ivany has had some promising moments. Still, even when squinting, this blueline seems short a couple top-four defencemen.
In short, top prospects Owen Pickering and Harrison Brunicke cannot develop into such players fast enough. Both players have the size and skating to be effective NHL defenders. Pickering is a left-shot who made a reasonably impressive debut in a few games down the stretch. If the Penguins are ready to compete anytime soon, there is a good chance that Pickering will be a factor.
Meanwhile, Brunicke, a right shot, is often seen as the higher upside, and is still eligible to play in the CHL. The Pens should be patient here, and with Karlsson and Letang in the fold, not to mention Timmins and St. Ivany behind, there will be less pressure on the right side. The Oens should be looking to add some more defence prospects in the future, but for now, Pickering and Brunicke represent a great starting point in efforts to rebuild this blueline.
The blueline has a lot of skill, as virtually the entire top-six has played on an NHL power play at one point or another, save for Ryan Graves. While this type of blueline might be good for controlling play, they might have a harder time defending in their own zone. This could lead to opposing teams being able to take tactical advantages, and certainly does not make life easier on the goalies.
The Penguins need an upgrade in goal
Speaking of goalies, the Penguins have not had much to feel good about since Marc-Andre Fleury left town. Tristan Jarry has been far from his best self, his contract becoming cumbersome, his play dipping below the standards of a starter. Alex Nedeljkovic is about as reliable, though he is coming off a much better season and is not weighed down by his contract.
Perhaps the answer lies with Joel Blomqvist, who had some strong moments in his first NHL season. Blomqvist might have a bright future, as might Sergei Murashov. Still, this group should be upgraded through the draft, trade, or free agency. With all their picks across the upcoming drafts, the Penguins are likely to select a few goalies.
The bigger issue might be playing defence in front of the netminders. Regardless, the results will need to be better, and the goalie market is not always easy to navigate. The simplest solution is improved defensive play.
Next steps for the organization
In short, it seems that Dubas and the Pens have done a better job setting themselves up for life after Crosby than they have in maximizing his final seasons. In order to be a threat within the next season or two, a lot of things need to go right for the Pens, from internal development to acquisitions to chemistry. The chances are slim, regardless of how one feels about Dubas’ track record in professional acquisition through trades or free agency.
The team seems much more prepared to thrive in life after Crosby than when Dubas started. Admittedly, one might feel a bit stronger about Dubas’ work in this area, the chance to rebuild a team looming on the horizon. With the 11th pick in the 2025 draft, the Penguins should not be expecting immediate help from this draft class. Their upcoming influx of mid round picks, as well as two first-rounders in 2026 providing the New York Rangers keep their puck this season, will be able to help build up the long-barren pipeline.
In essence, Dubas has been proactive in preparing for life without Crosby, while giving his captain enough grace to call his own shot. It might make a lot of sense to initiate a full-scale rebuild at this point, but ultimately, Crosby is owed the right to make his own decision.
The rest of the team surrounding him might be a more delicate matter to sort through, complicating matters further with each player involved. Regardless of how it shakes out in the future, the Pens have gotten ahead of things, allowing themselves the space to let the Crosby era play out at its own pace.
The Penguins’ future after Crosby
Wherever the Penguins finish over the next three seasons, they will be productive in building for the future. There might be a few seasons tougher than this one ahead, where the Penguins will have to hit some home runs on high draft picks, but the framework of mid-round picks should give their next stars enough depth and structure to pull out of the rebuild more quickly.
Meanwhile, the Penguins should be able to take some chances on players to help Crosby make the playoffs again without altering their long-term path back towards competing, should they choose to do so. For Crosby, it comes down to a simple choice: whether to remain a Penguin or chase another Stanley Cup. The Penguins, meanwhile, are prioritizing a prospect system for the future.
More must-reads: