The Tampa Bay Lightning remained quiet throughout the summer. However, the Conor Sheary signing is one move that fans should anticipate.
Analyzing Conor Sheary‘s New Contract
The Lightning jumped at the opportunity to add a two-time Stanley Cup Champion. Sheary hoisted back-to-back Stanley Cups as a member of the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2016 and 2017. After his tenure in Pittsburgh, he had a brief stint with the Buffalo Sabres. Moreover, he’s spent the past three seasons as a member of the Washington Capitals.
Throughout his career, Sheary has potted 120 goals and 132 assists for 252 points in 531 career games. In 82 games with the Capitals last season, Sheary added 15 goals and 37 points. However, Washington’s roster shift to a younger bottom-six group left Sheary to hit the open market.
Understanding Tampa Bay’s Offensive Zone Tactics
Tampa Bay’s offensive structure consists of a “2-3 press”. The team has shifted from “quality over quantity” to a sustained pressure style. The Lightning place two forwards in front of the net for deflections and screens. All their unblocked shot attempts come from the point or on the edge of the crease.
The “high-percentage plays” Tampa Bay generates are passes from the middle of the ice and one-timers. The offence uses deception to create these scoring chances. According to Corey Sjanzder’s “All Three Zones” micro-stats tracking project, Tampa Bay ranked 3rd in one-timers per hour. In addition, the team ranked 6th in centre lane assists per hour.
Tampa Bay doesn’t execute many “high-danger passes.” High-danger passes include cross-crease and behind-the-net passes. These passes are the most difficult to replicate because more risk is involved, and they increase their shooting percentage higher than the league average. The goalie must move from side to side, giving the shot threat a better chance to score.
How Sheary Generates His Scoring Chances
Sheary proved himself to be a “high-danger passer” with the Capitals last season. Sheary was in the 63rd percentile of “high-danger assists per 60” in 2023. In addition, he ranked in the 82nd percentile of “one-timer assists per 60.”
Shot Maps created by Micah Blake McCurdy from HockeyViz is a great tool to understand how efficiently teams generate shots. The blue regions identify a team that generates less than the league average rate of shots, and the red regions for more than the league average.
When comparing Sheary’s stats across models, the red zone indicates Sheary is a solid offensive play driver. We can connect the shot map with the A3Z data to understand Sheary’s offensive archetype. He prefers quality over quantity and prefers to attempt high-percentage plays.
Where Sheary Stands In The Offence
At first glance, Sheary’s chance generation doesn’t align with Tampa Bay’s current offensive structure. However, contextualization and deeper analysis tels us it works.
Sheary Has Succeeded With Stars
Sheary is no stranger to playing with elite talent. Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Alex Ovechkin are his former teammates. Sheary potted a career-best 53 points in 61 games alongside Crosby in 2016-17. Furthermore, Sheary added 43 points in 71 games alongside Ovechkin in 2021-22. Sheary presents upside playing alongside Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, and Brayden Point.
The Lightning Were Previously a High Danger Passing Team
In the past, the Lightning ran a more opportunistic offence. Kucherov and Stamkos still complete many cross-crease passes for one-timers. It’s always possible that Head Coach Jon Cooper fluctuates the offensive system after losing to the Toronto Maple Leafs in the first round.
Sheary’s Projected Centreman Creates Offence Identical To Him
Dailyfaceoff has Sheary as the second-line right wing for the Lightning, with Anthony Cirelli and Brandon Hagel as his linemates. Specifically, Cirelli possesses an alike chance generation style. Cirelli was the only Lightning forward to finish above the league average in “high-danger passes per 60” and “shots off high-danger passes per 60.” Plus, Cirelli placed in the 84th percentile for “shots off high-danger passes per 60,” according to A3Z data.
Moreover, Cirelli finished last season scoring more than five goals under expected at 5v5. Cirelli’s ability to shoot from high-percentage areas with Sheary’s high-danger passing skill set may improve this. Additionally, both players have a ton of speed.
The Financial Side of The Signing
The Lightning grabbed Sheary for the next three seasons at an annual cap hit of $2 million per season. It’s a bargain for his projected role with the squad. It’s rare to have a top-six option make such little and have the term to go with it.
On top of that, the cap-strapped Lightning found a cheap, versatile player. Sheary isn’t making enough to hurt the team in the future. It’s unlikely he underperforms considering his history alongside talented linemates.
What This Means For Next Season
Sheary signing with Tampa Bay’s roster didn’t have fans out of their seats. However, this is an addition to be excited about. His chance generation style is the toughest to replicate in the league. It wouldn’t be surprising if he ended up being the most underrated signing of the free agent class three seasons from now.
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