Maple Leafs at the crossroads: Leaflets

The Maple Leafs’ lineup is starting to look a bit more like the team that was written down on paper in the off season. Healthy versions of Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies will make a world of difference in assessing where the team is at. And while Chris Tanev being absent is still significant, looking at the Leafs without the built-in excuse of issues setts the Leafs up for a week of determining what this team truly is.

In that spirit, here are some thoughts on the current state of the Maple Leafs:

Point of no return

Generally, the rule of thumb is that if you aren’t in a playoff spot at American Thanksgiving, it is assumed that you probably aren’t going to make the playoffs this season. The Leafs having the second-worst points percentage in the Eastern Conference (6th worst in the league), the 9th worst goal differential in the NHL, and the 5th highest goals against in the league is probably a bad sign.

There is a contrast and the Leafs are only five points out of a wild card spot which is pretty attainable given that this team could put together a heater at some point and be right on track. Whether they do or not remains to be seen and the fact that their remaining schedule features an abundance of tougher opponents and a significant balance towards road games should have the organization considering a realistic outlook of their situation rather than an optimist one.

Ideally the team lands on a point of no return for this season. Right now, the Leafs would likely need to pick up 70 points in the remaining 58 games of the season, so going from a .500 points percentage to a .593 points percentage in the remaining games. The Leafs have exceeded a .593 winning percentage in every season since 2019-20, the year that Mike Babcock was replaced.

While putting a set date as the point of no return might not be possible, if the Leafs are .500 point percentage team at the end of December, the points percentage in the remaining 43 games the might give them a shot at wild card spot increases to around .625 based on historical results, and possibly higher given the spike in three point games this season.

At that point, half a season of evidence will be showing what the Leafs actually are and if the hill is looking too steep to climb it will warrant some tougher decisions.

In the meantime, the best course of action might be to wait and see what happens as the lineup gets healthier and if this is just a team that needed time to gel.

If everyone is playing bad, you have to start with the coach

You know that Craig Berube is trouble because the media is no longer calling him “Chief.”

When the St. Louis Blues fired Berube, it was 28 games into the season with 13 wins and 27 points. The Leafs would need to go 4-1-0 in their next five to beat that win total but only need to pick up five points in the next five games to top the point total.

Firing Berube needs to be one of Brad Treliving’s considerations at this point for two very simple reasons.

1. If everyone is playing bad (which the majority of the Leafs are), that has to at least partially fall on the coach.
2. If it’s not Craig Berube’s fault that this is such an underperforming team the focus shifts to Brad Treliving himself (it probably should too).

While hanging all the Leafs failures this season on Berube isn’t fair, the Leafs being badly outshot is something that can be hung on him and his coaching staff. The shift away from offence, puck movement, and speed, is a combination of Brad Treliving and Craig Berube, but this was done with Berube’s systems in mind.

Berube’s calling card is a team that is tough to play against and has a physically imposing identity. He’s missed the mark there and the core of the Leafs lineup doesn’t seem eager to buy into what he’s preaching. And the reality is that Craig Berube’s track record don’t show him as a coach worth going against your stars in favour of your coach for.

The saving grace for Berube might be that when you look at the assistants behind the bench or John Gruden on the Marlies, the Leafs don’t have a compelling option that is ready to be the future bench boss of the Maple Leafs and unless the coach the Leafs want to take charge (Pete DeBoer?) is available, Toronto might be best off with letting Berube have a chance to turn things around.

So, you want the Maple Leafs to be sellers

Admittedly, this is where I am at. There is going to be some value in cheap options like Scott Laughton and Bobby McMann for sure, and unless the Maple Leafs make a dramatic shift towards contender in the next couple of months, cashing out on those two as well as taking what the Leafs can get for Calle Jarnkrok just makes good sense as age and potential salary increases should make them unlikely to return to the Maple Leafs next season.

That said, none of those three players move the needle much in the way of improving the Leafs in the coming years.

The tougher decision needs to come with some of the players the Leafs have under contract. The Leafs might not be a good enough team to have two good goaltenders on decent contracts and despite the rough start to the year for Anthony Stolarz, there is still value there. The Leafs defence might not be good together but as individuals there are a number of them that would garner interest around the league.

If Toronto puts salary retention on the table (the Leafs are in a position to retain on three players), underperforming forwards like Max Domi, Matias Maccelli, Nicolas Roy, and Dakota Joshua might be movable as assets rather than hard to swallow contracts. This is essentially what the Flyers did to the Leafs last season with Scott Laughton. Multiyear retention shouldn’t sting as much in the rising salary cap era.

Blowing it up seems like it would make sense, and it would certainly be cathartic. The problem is that if the Leafs blow things up the expectation is that they’d be able to put things back together fairly quickly. That might be a challenge in an era where it has never been easier to hang onto players as they approach free agency.

The other question, that needs to be answered by Keith Pelley, is whether Brad Treliving is the right person to tear things down and build them back up. If the Leafs are going to undertake a reset, a coherent plan needs to be part of the process.