Maple Leafs Must Address Issues from Games 4 & 5 to Close Out Senators

The Maple Leafs’ top lines were on the ice for all the Senators’ goals, with Matthews, Marner and Matthew Knies finishing with a minus-4 and Nylander and Tavares finishing at minus-3. Knies, at least, showed some urgency in trying to generate offence, tallying six shots on net. Conversely, the high-salaried ‘Core Four’ quartet managed a combined 10.

Overall, the foursome has been mostly successful in carrying the offensive load for the club, with six goals and 18 assists in this series. The team was also thriving with their big guns on the ice, outscoring Ottawa 5-0 at even strength and 10-1 in all situations with Matthews on the ice before Game 5. But with the Maple Leafs on the precipice of advancing, Matthews is suddenly a concern based on an unspecified injury, Marner looked listless in Game 5, and Nylander appeared lackadaisical and indifferent, particularly during his “chase” of Dylan Cozens on the Senators’ short-handed goal to make it 2-0.

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Maple Leafs Power Play Falls Apart

Numbers often fail to tell the whole story, but sometimes they do. After going 5-for-11 (45.5%) on the power play through Games 1-3, they’ve sputtered to a 0-for-7 mark in the two games since. In fact, over the Maple Leafs’ oft-mentioned past 15 series-clinching opportunities (in which they infamously hold a 1-14 record), the power play has gone 0-for-30.

Those numbers are catastrophic for any NHL franchise, let alone one with the offensive firepower that the Maple Leafs boast. The power play has been a hot-button issue for years, with Manny Malhotra and Marc Savard being among the most recent coaches tasked with solving the 5-on-4 puzzle. Although it’s hard to gather any kind of conclusive cause-and-effect out of these shockingly poor man-advantage numbers in series-clinching scenarios, it seems that Toronto has struggled to respond to the desperation of opposing penalty-killing units playing with their season on the line.

Roles Reversed

Credit the Senators with finding a way to emulate the Maple Leafs’ blueprint from the early games of the series: play smothering, physical, shot-preventing defence, remain safe and conservative in all zones and capitalize on mistakes. In what was a fairly boring, low-event Game 5, Ottawa established a stifling defensive presence immediately and then doubled down on it after taking the lead early in the second period. Linus Ullmark rightfully earned first-star honours with a 29-save shutout, but few of those saves came on particularly threatening scoring chances, as the Maple Leafs were kept out of high-danger zones and were limited in their hunt for second-chance opportunities.

While Ottawa has every right to feel good about getting back in the series, the Maple Leafs can’t just throw up their arms and accept that their Battle of Ontario opponents were too good. Toronto has to be better at creating sustained scoring chances, applying pressure in the offensive zone and being heavier on pucks.

On TSN’s Overdrive radio program on Wednesday, host Bryan Hayes made the interesting (albeit flawed) comparison between the Maple Leafs and Edmonton Oilers, noting that the Los Angeles Kings have delivered some tight-checking, physical resistance to the Oilers’ attack, but Edmonton – led by superstars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl – has counteracted those efforts by making plays. That both teams are up 3-2 in their respective series doesn’t change the fact that Edmonton has adapted to and found solutions for the Kings’ defence, whereas Ottawa has found more success in stymying Toronto as the series has progressed.

Ahead of Game 6, the Maple Leafs are saying all the right things about “not looking in the rearview mirror” and “feeling fine” about the direction of the series and their confidence in closing things out. Nevertheless, while the club would do well to block out any noise about curses or history repeating itself, there are clearly areas of weakness to address. Even if Toronto ousts the Senators, they have plenty to clean up with the defending champion Florida Panthers awaiting. And if they don’t? Let’s try not to think about that right now.