Effect of ban on Russia could span beyond the Olympic Games

It is possibly the only story line ahead of the opening ceremonies in Rio de Janeiro that is garnering as much attention as the Zika virus, but the scandal surrounding Russia’s track and field team could be more than just a splashy headline as the Summer Olympics get underway.

It’s considered one of the biggest doping scandals in the history of the games, with the International Association of Athletics Federation (IAAF) denying the appeals of 68 Russian athletes following reports that the country ran a state-sponsored doping ring since 2010. BBC.com reported this week that the International Olympic Committee (IOC) is “considering calls to ban all Russian competitors from the Rio Games” after a second report found evidence of the doping during previous Olympics. Then came comments from the World Anti-Doping Agency, reportedly asking that all other sports “consider their responsibilities.”

Sure, this isn’t the first doping incident to cast a cloud over the Olympics. However, it's a reminder that despite some of the greatest efforts to “level the playing field” for all athletes, performance-enhancing drugs are still quite prevalent in the sports world. But a ban on a whole country — and subsequent acknowledgment of how many people were involved in this doping program — shows that the problem clearly goes beyond Russia and beyond the sport of track and field.

It only goes to wonder if the large ban could have a ripple effect on the rest of the Olympics — and beyond that, into the entire international sporting world.

While doping scandals have popped up throughout recent sports history, the emerging details of the Russian track and field scandal show just how bad the situation really is. Seeker.com caught up with Mark Johnson, author of the book “Spitting in the Soup: Inside the Dirty Game of Doping in Sports” who spoke on the issue:

Revelations about Russia’s recent program — which  included the use of security agents to smuggle out doping results for testing labs — is unprecedented, Johnson noted. 

“It’s the first time that the World Anti-Doping Agency has acknowledged what a collective endeavor doping is,” he said. “If an entire country is tossed out of the Olympics, it means that doping is more complex than just a few bad apples.”

The consequence of an entire country being banned could then expand across the rest of the Olympic events, particularly with how the absence of an entire large country/participant will effect the medal count in the Games. Russia is represented on the podium quite often in the Olympics. So what happens if the whole country gets banned? Wired.com tackled this topic in the wake of the potential ban:

Marcus Noland, executive vice president and director of studies at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, builds models that forecast medal counts based on past performance, population, GDP, and other variables. In London, the Russians won four to 16 more medals than his models predicted — meaning their wins were probably inflated by doping. And his numbers have been borne out: The Olympic committee has since reallocated 11 Russian medals from the London games.

The article also says that if Russia “managed to nab 11 extra medals in London, when their doping program was still relatively new, you can bet they could get at least that number and then some” had the track and field team not come under scrutiny by the IAAF back in November of last year.

A complete ban of Russia from the Rio Games wouldn’t just change the upcoming Olympics. Patrick Rishe, director of the Sports Business Program at Washington University, said it could have an effect on cheating in the greater sports landscape. He said in a piece for the Olin Business School’s website and blog:

“While the IAAF’s decision to ban Russian track and field from Rio is a grand statement, it certainly is not surprising in light of Russia’s inability to sufficiently curb cheating,” Rishe said. “Though cheating still occurs in sports that have tried to become clean (e.g., baseball), the economic lesson to be learned is that if you raise the price of cheating (through greater suspensions and other financial penalties), the incidence of cheating will fall.”

Clearly, a potential ban on Russia from the 2016 Summer Olympics is only the beginning.