Which early-season NHL narratives already seem legit?

We’re almost through the NHL season’s first month, but not quite, meaning overreaction season is very much alive.

Roundtable: I want you to search your overreactions and pick one you believe is not hyperbolic. Give me an early-season narrative that you believe will stick all season long.

MATT LARKIN: The Toronto Maple Leafs are not an elite team anymore. I said before the season that I expected Mitch Marner’s departure to cost them five to seven wins and sink them into the Eastern Conference Wildcard mix. Everything I’ve seen from Toronto through three weeks confirms exactly what I suspected. This is still a deep team, and maybe the Leafs are better built for playoff success, but they have to get there first. This is a far slower and far less talented team than it was with Marner.

PAUL PIDUTTI: I’m leaning in on a preseason pick too, Matt. The Utah Mammoth are the real deal. I was the lone staff member to have the Mammoth in a top-three spot in the Central Division in our season predictions. I’m going to double down. Now, no one should get too excited about a dozen or so games to start a season… unless, of course, you feel Nick Schmaltz is due to win an Art Ross Trophy. But it’s more about Utah’s process than the results. They are a top-10 team in expected goals (xGF%). Their goaltending, power play, or hot shooting percentage hasn’t been the story. This hasn’t been a team dependent on puck luck. It just feels like a young, promising core that is coming of age in real time, pairing well with some clever acquisitions the last two seasons in a new market soaking in good vibes. Does their goaltending scare me over a full season? You bet. But I’m optimistic it will be good enough to keep this team on a comfortable path to the postseason.

SCOTT MAXWELL: It’s a topic that myself and my power rankings cohort Hunter Crowther can’t escape when talking about the New York Islanders, and it’s that Matthew Schaefer is already a legitimate No. 1 defenseman. It took just one game for him to earn the trust of head coach Patrick Roy and get top minutes at 5-on-5, and he’s already quarterbacking the top power-play unit, something that seemed to be Tony DeAngelo’s role only because he has no other role with the team. Oh, and Schaefer’s on the penalty kill already as well. Not only is he producing with seven points in nine games, he’s also winning the expected goal battle in those minutes with a 53.5% 5-on-5 share, and that’s more so due to his chance suppression at 2.37 5-on-5 xG against per 60, which is tied for 53rd in the league – a top pair level. There are some concerns about how his game will hold over the course of an 82-game season, especially with how much he’s already playing, but it feels like we’re just scratching the surface on a great career for Schaefer.

STEVEN ELLIS: The Montreal Canadiens are the top team in the Atlantic. I kept my expectations modest heading into the season – I expected a more consistent campaign but thought they’d finish in a similar spot as last year. Instead, they’ve been getting the scoring depth they’ve been missing for quite some time. Oliver Kapanen has been huge, Ivan Demidov can’t be stopped, Alex Newhook is playing his best hockey to date and Brendan Gallagher is showing last year’s surge wasn’t a fluke. The biggest question still has to be the play of Samuel Montembeault, but I’m a firm believer that he’ll figure it out and get back to the form that saw him post some of the best analytics in 2024-25. 

MIKE GOULD: The Calgary Flames are actually this bad. Whether they “embrace the tank” and trade Nazem Kadri, Rasmus Andersson, and Blake Coleman remains to be seen, but there’s no disputing that the Flames are a trainwreck and a strong bet to finish last in the league. When a team that can’t score is scratching Matt Coronato, Yegor Sharangovich, and Connor Zary, you know something has gone terribly wrong. This is a team that badly needs a player like Gavin McKenna, which makes it all the more agonizing for Flames fans that they’re more far likely than not to lose the draft lottery even if they do end up in 32nd.

ANTHONY TRUDEAU: John Hynes isn’t long for the Twin Cities. There is no hyperbole to describe how badly the Minnesota Wild have disappointed since Kirill Kaprizov’s mega extension. Someone has to be held accountable, and club president Bill Guerin isn’t going to fire himself. Guerin had owner Craig Leipold’s patience throughout the Parise-Suter buyout odyssey, but, with a core of Kaprizov, Brock Faber, Matt Boldy, and Filip Gustavsson locked up long term, the Wild were supposed to kick push forward as a Cup contender starting this season. Instead, the vets look old, the kids look lost, and the softness that Hynes and predecessor Dean Evason expended so much effort trying to fix has bubbled back up to the surface as the Wild have dropped eight of their last nine. Guerin has spent the past half-decade handing out no-trade clauses like Milk Duds on Halloween, so his only option to turn this mess around might be a change behind the bench.