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Duke wins ACC championship, sets off chaos in CFP
Duke Blue Devils quarterback Darian Mensah (10) looks to throw in the second quarter against the Virginia Cavaliers during the 2025 ACC Championship game at Bank of America Stadium. Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Duke wins ACC championship, sets off chaos in CFP

The nuclear option for both the ACC and the College Football Playoff has happened. With their 27-20 overtime win against the Virginia Cavaliers on Saturday night, the Duke Blue Devils have won the ACC championship, and in the process may have completely shut the conference out of the 12-team playoff. 

Duke win sets off chaotic series of events

The most important development here is what this means for the automatic qualifiers to the playoff.

There is almost no way a five-loss Duke team is going to be ranked, or ranked high enough, to earn a spot. Duke was not ranked coming into championship weekend; it was never a serious part of the discussion, and there is virtually no chance it is going to jump over No. 25 James Madison or even Mountain West champion Boise State. Not with five losses. 

The top-five ranked conference champions earn an automatic ticket into the playoff, and Indiana, Georgia and Texas Tech have the top-three of those spots from the Big Ten, SEC and Big 12 easily wrapped up.

Tulane is also going to get in following its AAC win on Friday night. 

Had Virginia won on Saturday, it would have made it as likely the fourth-highest ranked conference champion between Texas Tech and Tulane. 

But despite a valiant late fourth quarter comeback to erase a 10-point deficit with four minutes to play, the Cavaliers still came up short in overtime when they could not stop Duke and were then intercepted on a trick play on its first overtime snap.

The ACC's hope for a playoff berth now comes down to one of two things: Either Duke being ranked higher than James Madison, which seems unlikely, or Miami getting an at-large bid over either Notre Dame or Alabama. That is certainly a possibility, but far from a certainty. 

Whether Miami gets in or not, we are still looking at a situation where the 12-team playoff is going to have two group-of-five conference champions in the field. That is not a situation that anybody would have realistically predicted at the start of the season.

Then again, nobody had Duke winning the ACC, either. 

Adam Gretz

Adam Gretz is a freelance writer based in Pittsburgh. He covers the NHL, NFL, MLB and NBA. Baseball is his favorite sport -- he is nearly halfway through his goal of seeing a game in every MLB ballpark. Catch him on Twitter @AGretz

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