The 150th Kentucky Derby is upon us. The horses are prepped, post positions are drawn, and bets are coming in. Here, we will take a look at the entries, explain some of the qualifications, and give you our take on the winner.
Prior to 2013, positions were allowed solely based on money won, and it was allowed to count all monies won in any kind of stakes race. This distorted the race and the odds because there were horses entered that didn't really fit the distance and the track.
After 2013, Derby qualifications were changed to points. Horses could earn points based on their finish in a series of specifically designated races. The qualifications evened the field and allowed for a much "better" race, as most of the horses had proven to be successful at the same distances and circumstances that they would face on Derby day.
There are 20 horses entered in the Kentucky Derby, and for a race, that is a lot of horses. In fact, that is the most horses you will see in a major race in the United States. There will be no doubt some chaos that goes along with that. That many horses loading in the chutes and running side-by-side will change the field.
According to Steve Kornacki of NBC News, from 2019 through 2023, the favorite has not won the Derby. From 2013 through 2018, the favorite won first every single time. Odds show that the favorite wins the race around 35% of the time. In the 116 races since 1908, the favorite has won 40 times.
So, who is the favorite this year?
With a very fitting name. Fierceness, who is owned by Mike Repole and trained by Todd Pletcher, is the favorite. John Velazquez will be aboard the 3-year-old bay colt by City of Light out of Nonna Bella, who is by Stay Thirsty.
It is easy to see why Fierceness is getting the nod of favorite. In his last out, he blew the competition away, winning by more than 13 lengths. He has three wins in five career starts. Two of these wins came in Grade 1 stakes races - Breeders' Cup Juvenile and the Florida Derby.
With a tough draw position of starting gates, Fierceness was to start in the number 17 gate. Coincidentally the number 17 is the only gate not to produce a Derby Champion. Fate may still be on his side, though. Encino scratched from the race on Tuesday, which moved Fierceness to the number 16 gate.
There are a few horses to keep your eyes on and maybe your bets as well. Just a Touch is a son of the 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify. He has picked up his speed index in the three races he has under his belt. It appears he just keeps getting better, going from 89 to 90 and then jumping to 96.
Forever Young is 5 for 5 in his career thus far. Although he is from Japan, odds makers seem to like him. The fact that he is from Japan is important because they are 0 for 4 as Derby winners since 2019. Given that he has never been beaten, it will be interesting to see how the colt handles kickback.
Catching Freedom has three wins in his five career starts. His impressive rally from last place to win the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby makes him one to watch. You can already count on him being gritty enough to take the kickback as almost a challenge. The horse currently has odds of 8-1, but that is probably because he came from Fair Grounds.
Honor Marie is one that could be a spoiler to the favorites. At 20-1, he might be being overlooked a bit. The horse already has two wins at Churchill Downs and is said to love the longer 1 1/4 mile distance of the Derby. If the predicted rain actually occurs and the track is sloppy, he may not be a good bet. His worst finishes have come when the tracks were sloppy.
Kentucky Derby field with their odds:
1. Dornoch (20-1)
2. Sierra Leone (3-1)
3. Mystik Dan (20-1)
4. Catching Freedom (8-1)
5. Catalytic (30-1)
6. Just Steel (20-1)
7. Honor Marie (20-1)
8. Just a Touch (10-1)
9. Encino (scratched)
10. T O Password (30-1). Will leave from post position 9.
11. Forever Young (10-1). Will leave from post position 10.
12. Track Phantom (20-1). Will leave from post position 11.
13. West Saratoga (50-1). Will leave from post position 12.
14. Endlessly (30-1). Will leave from post position 13.
15. Domestic Product (30-1). Will leave from post position 14.
16. Grand Mo the First (50-1). Will leave from post position 15.
17. Fierceness (5-2). Will leave from post position 16.
18. Stronghold (20-1). Will leave from post position 17.
19. Resilience (20-1). Will leave from post position 18.
20. Society Man (50-1). Will leave from post position 19.
21. Epic Ride (50-1). Will leave from post position 20.
Here are the main details to know for the Kentucky Derby:
When: 6:57 p.m. Saturday
Where: Churchill Downs
TV: NBC and Peacock.
Purse: $5 million (Grade 1)
For: 3-year-old Thoroughbreds
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