The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says the odds are high that the ongoing El Niño will soon end, likely replaced by a La Niña this summer or fall.
In an April 11th report, NOAA stated that there is an 85% chance that El Niño will transition to a neutral phase—when neither an El Niño nor La Niña is in effect—between April and June.
The likelihood of a La Niña developing will increase as the summer progresses, reaching above 80% by September.
The story hasn't changed much since March when, in a blog post, NOAA explained that the El Niño was out soon-to-be-out, likely followed by a La Niña.
As it would turn out, La Niñas following strong El Niños is a documented phenomenon—five out of eight strong El Niños since 1950 have ended with a La Niña, the March blog post noted.
The question, of course, is, "What the heck does a probable La Niña have to do with skiing?"
Everything and nothing. La Niñas load the dice temperature and snowfall-wise but don't provide guarantees. Typically, here's what it means for skiers.
In the southern U.S., conditions are warmer and drier than average, with colder-than-average conditions across the north-central Plains. The Pacific Northwest and Northern California tend to see higher-than-average precipitation, which, provided temperatures cooperate, means more snow.
States in the middle of the country, like Utah and Colorado, are a meteorological no-man's land during La Niñas, unimpacted by the metaphorical loading of the dice. They can swing either way—warmer and drier or colder and snowier—when the La Niña comes to town.
As can literally everywhere else in the U.S. While likelier than usual, the aforementioned weather trends regularly don't pan out. Weather outcomes vary considerably during La Niñas.
Here's what every La Niña winter has looked like between 1950 and 2017, courtesy of some handy graphics from NOAA.
Feeling uncertain and confused? Yeah, me too. Meterological and climatological patterns are fickle, fickle beasts. So, unless they have a crystal ball, don't let anyone promise you they know exactly what next winter will look like.
More must-reads: