English Premier League best bets: Finding the order in a topsy-turvy table
It's Matchday 8 of the Premier League Season, the last competitive weekend before we all disappear for yet another international break. (We know. We’re not ready for it either.)
After last weekend’s drama everything feels topsy-turvy in the English top flight. Man City is losing! Luton Town is winning! Chelsea is scoring! Spurs is snatching late goals! None of these happenings line up with what we’ve come to expect of the Premier League this season — and all of them are fascinating to watch develop.
With all this volatility swirling around and making things complicated, where are the best bets hiding this Premier League weekend? We think they’re hiding here:
Man United vs. Brentford
Poor, sad Man United. In a league that features Chelsea and Everton, United is still somehow the most shambolic outfit on display. Some of this comes down to its less-than-stellar PR — Barney Ronay’s shocking Man United press story at the 31st minute of the Guardian Football Weekly podcast can attest to that — but most of it must come down to the club’s toxic culture. Players are now coming to United and becoming worse; just look at André Onana and Casemiro.
On a normal day, in a normal season, United would be able to take Brentford without too much trouble. But with United in complete disarray and Brentford relishing its role as the draw masters of the Premier League, a tie feels like the best outcome United can hope for here. At +320, it looks like an awfully smart bet.
Brighton vs. Liverpool
Both Brighton and Liverpool are coming off shocking performances in Matchday 7. Brighton only has itself to blame for its troubles; it was dire against Aston Villa and thoroughly deserved its 6-1 hammering. Liverpool, meanwhile, played brilliantly; the only shocking performance in its tight game against Spurs was the performance of the refereeing squad in charge of it. Luis Diaz was miles onside, and his gorgeous opening goal should’ve stood.
All eyes are on this game, then, to see which team will bounce back from heartbreak and reset its season. This one’s almost too close to call, but one thing is certain: the goals will be flying in. Both teams have scored in every single one of their Premier League games this season and play in a manner that allows the opposition to come at them if they’re brave enough. Betting on four or more goals during this match feels like a steal at +220.
Wolves vs. Aston Villa
American soccer fans tend to focus on London, Liverpool and Manchester when watching games; Birmingham, the largest city in the Midlands and second largest in the United Kingdom, rarely gets any attention. Let’s hope this match — a proper Midlands derby featuring the strongest two teams in the region — will change that. Both teams have been gloriously chaotic this season, with Wolves beating Man City just to lose to Man United and Villa alternately scoring or conceding five goals per game. They’re fun, and this match should be, too.
On paper, this is Villa’s match to lose, but it’s hard to bet against Wolves after the masterclass they pulled off last weekend against the defending champions. With that in mind, we’re diving below the moneyline to find a bet that feels safer while still delivering a big payout. We think it’s hiding in cards: these are two notoriously feisty teams playing in a local derby where emotions will be running hot.
We think Lucas Digne (+275), Douglas Luiz (+150) and Mario Lemina (+150) are the most likely to pick up bookings; they’ve each netted four yellow cards so far this season. For slightly longer odds, consider the goalkeepers, too; Wolves’ José Sá is at +275 while Villa’s Martínez is at +300. Both are savvy operators famous for intentionally wasting time — a bookable yellow card offense.
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