MLS Wildcards: Breaking down the matches in the East and West
After a historic season, MLS is finally heading to the playoffs — but only two of the four remaining wildcard teams will get to come along.
On Wednesday, The New York Red Bulls and Charlotte FC will play for the final spot in the East, while Sporting Kansas City and the San Jose Earthquakes will battle it out for the final spot in the West.
The winners on each side will enter into MLS's 16-team playoff pool against the top seeds from their conference — FC Cincinnati for the East and St. Louis City SC for the West.
But how did our wildcard teams get here? What are their chances in this do-or-die playoff? And can any of them make a deep run to the MLS Cup?
Eastern Conference: New York Red Bulls vs. Charlotte FC
The Red Bulls come into this wild-card game on the back of an emotional win against Nashville on the final day of the season. The Red Bulls scored a penalty in the 94th minute to seal their spot in the playoffs for the fourteenth season in a row.
Charlotte, meanwhile, qualified by beating Lionel Messi's Inter Miami 1-0 in front of a rapturous home crowd. It's Charlotte's first visit to the MLS playoffs and the city's first visit to any sporting playoffs since 2017.
Who will win — and why? We think the Red Bulls have this one in the bag. They're riding high on the thrill of their last-minute qualification and will play in front of their home crowd. They also have something intangible that Charlotte doesn't: playoff pedigree. While Charlotte's form has arguably been better in MLS this season, the Red Bulls know how to turn it on for a knockout game. They've done it countless times in their history.
Can they challenge for the MLS Cup? Probably not. The Red Bulls will face imperious FC Cincinnati if they advance, and Cincy simply isn't in the mood to end its playoff run early. It's already ended Cincinnati's professional sports trophy drought by bringing home the Supporter's Shield, a prize awarded to the best team over the course of MLS's regular season. It's not likely to stop until it brings the MLS Cup back to Ohio, too.
Western Conference: Sporting Kansas City vs. San Jose Earthquakes
For casual viewers of MLS, it might be surprising to see Kansas City here in the postseason: it's a team that was "memed" into infinity back in the spring when it failed to win any of its first ten games of the season. Times have changed, though, and coach Peter Vermes brought his team back to winning ways after the summer break.
The Quakes had the opposite story: their season started off strong but petered out into a series of losses and draws. Their record against Kansas City itself says it all: they beat them 3-0 back in the spring without breaking a sweat but found themselves beaten 3-0 right back just a few short weeks ago.
Who will win — and why? The bookies have Kansas City as the favorite here, but we're leaning toward San Jose. Why? The Quakes have a creative spark that Kansas City can't compete with — and in a one-off knockout match, moments of brilliance can mean everything. Keep an eye on Cristian Espinoza and Cade Cowell; their partnership has kept San Jose afloat in the bad times and pushed them over the edge in the good ones.
Can they challenge for the MLS Cup? They've got a better shot than their counterparts in the East, that's for sure. The top seed in MLS West is St. Louis City SC, this year's debutant club. While St. Louis has been stellar all season in MLS, it hasn't performed nearly as well in knockout tournaments like the U.S. Open Cup...and that doesn't bode well for the postseason. Beyond that, if San Jose can beat St. Louis and move on, it's facing a very even field: just seven points separated the second-best team playoff team in the West from the worst. Just about anyone could push through to the MLS Cup with stats like that.
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