Premier League best bets: A weekend defined by its absences
Welcome to Matchday 26 of the Premier League season. If you think this suite of games feels a little light on heavy hitters, you're not imagining things. We're missing Liverpool, Luton, Chelsea and Spurs due to Sunday's EFL Cup Final. (Chelsea and Liverpool will be contesting that one at Wembley Stadium. If Liverpool wins, it could be Jurgen Klopp's last trophy with the club before his departure this summer. We'd encourage you to watch it if it weren't locked behind the labyrinth of paywalls known as ESPN+.)
Still, while the big dogs are away, the rest of the table will play. Liverpool's absence means that Arsenal and Manchester City could make significant gains in the race for first. Spurs' absence means that Aston Villa and Manchester United could shake up the battle for fourth. Chelsea's absence means Wolves and West Ham could rise to the top of the midfield. And Luton's absence means Everton could finally, finally drag itself away from the morass of the bottom three.
But where are the best bets in all of this? We think they're here:
Manchester United vs. Fulham. This game feels like it should be close, but United has quietly built up a sweet run of form that should lift it over its Southern visitors. The Red Devils haven't lost a game since Nottingham Forest embarrassed them last December — that's six wins and one draw over the course of two months, with 19 goals scored in the process. (The less said about the nine goals conceded, the better.) Fulham, despite carrying lots of goodwill from its stellar performances early in the season, has looked utterly unconvincing over the same time period. It drew with relegation candidates Burnley and Everton and lost to Aston Villa, Chelsea and Arsenal.
United should take this one, then, especially considering it's playing at home. But it's how United might win that intrigues us. That record of 19 goals scored and nine conceded makes us think this won't be a blowout, and we've got our eyes on a United win with at least one Fulham goal at +187.
We're also eyeing Danish striker Rasmus Højlund. He's scored in each of United's last five Premier League games ... and scored first in four of them. He's at +350 to score first in this one.
Bournemouth vs. Manchester City. It's a battle of Spanish tactical masterminds as Andoni Iraola welcomes Pep Guardiola to the South Coast. Iraola's Bournemouth is beloved by pundits for its clever attacking play, and rightfully so; Dominic Solanke is one of the most exciting strikers in the league. The Cherries do well against mid-table opposition and perform admirably against teams in the Europa League range, but their struggle comes with the top three. Bournemouth's record against Liverpool, Arsenal and, yes, City is abysmal. It's played one game against each this season and lost them 4-0, 4-0 and 6-1.
Betting on a City win isn't particularly exciting at -225. But betting on a City win with a clean sheet is better at +150, and betting on a City win with at least 3.5 goals scored is better still at +187. We still love you, Bournemouth, we promise. Just not this weekend.
West Ham vs. Brentford. The Hammers started this season beautifully, with big-hearted, aggressive wins against teams like Chelsea and Brighton. It's all gone a little bit pear-shaped recently, though, with the Hammers slumping to defeat after defeat in 2024. 2-0 to Nottingham Forest. 6-0 to Arsenal. 3-0 to Man United. If you're Brentford, you're probably thinking that you're rocking up to West Ham's Olympic Stadium at the best possible time.
Brentford, once known for its suburban pleasantry and cool Danish influence, has stumbled upon hard times this season. Losing striker Ivan Toney to an extended ban hurt it in ways we're all still trying to unravel, and the positive momentum of teams like Bournemouth, Fulham and Wolves dropped it all the way down to 14th. But there have been bright spots for Bournemouth amid the struggle. Midfielder Bryan Mbuemo exploded onto the scene this year, and defenders Ethan Pinnock and Ben Mee have outperformed their expectations considerably.
This one's too close for us to call, which usually means that betting on a draw at +260 is a decent shout. Consider amping it up to a scored draw at +350 for a bigger payout.
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