Premier League best bets: Can Everton score its first goal of the season?
With three Premier League weekends down and 35 remaining, we’re starting to see who each of these teams really is. We’re learning that Newcastle maybe isn’t quite the world-beating outfit many feared it might be after its 5-1 demolition of Aston Villa; we’re learning that Villa maybe isn’t the doomed train wreck many feared it was after the same game. We’re learning that Manchester City is still excellent, and we’re learning that Manchester City doesn’t feel it has to rub that in anyone’s face anymore.
Betting gets easier and more fun as realizations like these pile up. We’ve got data and stories now; that should help us find some interesting new bets. Here’s where we think they’re hiding in Matchday 4.
Sheffield United vs. Everton
We bet on Everton losing its first relegation six pointer last weekend against Wolves; it turns out that was a good call. The Toffees fell 1-0 after dominating possession in the early part of the match.
This next game, against newly promoted Sheffield United, should be a little closer. While Everton is unquestionably dire this season, Sheffield United is simply unprepared for the Premier League stage. At +300, betting on this one to be a scored draw — one where Everton will finally grab its first Premier League goal of the season — is intriguing. For all the doomsday preppers out there, betting on it to be a score-less draw at +700 might be more intriguing still.
Burnley vs. Tottenham Hotspur
Poor Burnley. We hyped it up as the best of the promoted teams and we stand by that — it’s got a lot to offer to the Premier League and we think it’ll stay up without too much trouble. It’s just the victim of a merciless and cruel schedule, one that saw it face defending champions Manchester City, bloodthirsty Villa, and now a high-flying Spurs team that looks set to put last season’s doldrums firmly behind it.
On current form, this should be a literal "walk in the park" for Spurs. They’re undefeated in this Premier League season and should be great at scything through Burnley’s aggressive high press. At +275, betting on a Spurs win and Burnley failing to score feels prudent. Sorry, Clarets. We promise your time will come.
Brighton vs. Newcastle
Perhaps the most inscrutable game of the weekend, this one is balanced on a knife’s edge. (And not just any knife — one of those scarily sharp precision ones that only skilled chefs can get away with using.) At first glance, Brighton and Newcastle are awfully similar. They both hit their "renaissance" periods around the same time. They’re both forecasted to challenge for the top four but expected to finish in the top six. And they’re both big advocates of data-driven recruiting, buying lesser-known players at steep discounts before selling them to Chelsea and Al-Ahli at exorbitant markups.
We’re leaning ever so slightly toward Brighton on this one, largely because the quick, provocative style in which it plays feels purpose-built to irritate the daylights out of Newcastle’s effective but inflexible tactics. English forward Solly March, one of the few Brighton attackers who has yet to be sold for profit, has scored in two of Brighton’s three matches so far, only failing to find the net in last weekend’s shock defeat to West Ham. At +400 as an anytime goalscorer against Newcastle, he could pay off big for savvy bettors this weekend.
More must-reads: