Premier League best bets: Can Tarkowski raze Crystal Palace?
Welcome to Matchday 25 of the Premier League. We're well and truly back after the stop-start jerkiness of the January schedule, with a full suite of games set for this weekend and the middle of next week. By this time next Wednesday, your favorite team will have played in the league twice.
This is the dreaded "fixture pile-up" that Premier League managers complain about. After an intense festive period featuring eight games in four weeks, the league barely had a chance to breathe before it turned around to do the whole thing again.
If you're feeling like everyone at your club is looking sluggish, you're not alone; the insanity of the December-March Premier League run takes no prisoners. Add in the challenge of the FA Cup, the Asian Cup, the Africa Cup of Nations and Champions League, and you can see why everyone's legs are looking a little heavy out there.
The fixture list this weekend is intriguing, with one big headliner (we'll get there tomorrow), eight close matchups and one Burnley-Arsenal blowout that you should feel pretty comfortable skipping. (Sorry, Burnley.) But where are the best bets hiding? We think they're hiding here:
Fulham vs. Aston Villa, Saturday, 10 a.m. ET, Peacock: From unlikely title challengers to losing against Man United: oh, how the mighty Villa has fallen. Fatigue and injuries have leveled the Midlands club since the holidays, and the vibe is only getting worse: Villa announced this week that talismanic midfielder Boubacar Kamara would miss the remainder of the season due to an ACL injury. It's Villa's third ACL issue in a year — captain Tyrone Mings and striker Emi Buendia are still recovering from theirs — and one that could devastate Villa's European chances this season.
With plucky Fulham always game for a challenge, we're backing the home team on this one at +190. Poor Villa. Things will improve for it ... just probably not this weekend.
Luton vs. Manchester United, Sunday, 11:30 a.m. ET, USA, Telemundo: This game tells the story of two clubs that have been reborn in the latter end of the season. Luton, once the nailed-on favorite for 20th place and relegation, is sitting pretty in 17th and has looked fearsome against top-level opposition. Manchester United, once the laughing stock of the league, is racking up win after win thanks to the transformation addition of young Kobbie Mainoo in midfield.
United should take this; Kenilworth Road is a scary place to go, but the Red Devils have enough talent to see this match through. But can United win without conceding? We're leaning towards no--Luton has an excellent goalscoring record at home and United's defense remains worryingly porous. We're backing a United win with at least one Luton goal at +220.
Everton vs. Crystal Palace, Monday, 3 p.m. ET, USA, Universo: From two teams on upward trajectories to two teams trapped in downward spirals: Palace and Everton, in all their woe, occupy the unenviable Monday slot in this Premier League weekend. They faced each other less than a month ago in the FA Cup; Everton was the victor there, eking out a labored 1-0 win at Goodison Park. (That result, incidentally, is why Everton is so highly favored in this one despite being the team with the worse record.)
Crystal Palace has struggled mightily with two things this season: conceding late goals and defending set pieces. With that in mind, we've got our eyes on Everton's James Tarkowski as a potential goalscorer. He's a central defender, but he's known for his excellent positioning in dead ball situations; he could be lethal against lethargic Palace as the clock ticks down. At +600 to score at any time, Tarkowski is one to watch.
More must-reads: