Premier League best bets: Heroes, Villans and a relegation six-pointer
It’s Matchday 24 of the Premier League and oh, how quickly things change. Just a few short weeks ago Liverpool were clear favorites at the top of the league, full of vim and vigor, eager to send off Jurgen Klopp with a Premier League title. Now, however, Manchester City is rising, Arsenal is getting its groove back and Liverpool is running back to the North with its tail between its legs thanks to a humiliating and comprehensive 3-1 defeat to the Gunners last weekend.
It's advantage Manchester City and Arsenal, then, as we push into Matchday 24. City, facing relegation-threatened Everton at home, should be able to pull off a win. Arsenal, facing bogey team West Ham away, should have a bit more trouble. (We’ll break that game down in full tomorrow.) But what of the rest of the table?
This matchday throws up some fascinating fixtures outside of the top four: we’ve got relegation battles and European showdowns galore, and they should tell us plenty about what the Premier League table will look like beyond the Champions League places. Here’s what we’re eyeing as the season clicks on into February:
Luton Town vs. Sheffield United. This looks set to be a heady, vicious, all-or-nothing relegation six pointer, and honestly, we’re here for it. Luton scraped a win in the reverse fixture back in December, but it was close; Luton needed two (two!) Sheffield own goals to eke out a 3-2 win at Bramall Lane.
Since that tight victory, though, Luton has been on fire, drawing 4-4 with Newcastle and hammering critical darlings Brighton 4-0. That, plus Luton’s homefield advantage, means we’re backing them to win at -138. We’ve got our eyes on Luton’s English forward Elijah Adebayo — he’s been the hero behind Luton’s hot streak and is at +160 to score in this one.
Nottingham Forest vs. Newcastle United. Both of these teams shoulder the curse of over-estimation: we tend to think they’re doing far better than they actually are. Quick: where is Forest in the Premier League table? Somewhere in the middle, right? Wrong: it’s in 16th place, just two points outside of the drop zone. And Newcastle? It’s still vaguely in the running for Europe, right? Nope, it’s in ninth, a full 13 points shy of Aston Villa in fourth.
Forest and Newcastle will be out for blood after both played out frustrating draws last weekend — Forest a 1-1 stinker with Bournemouth, Newcastle a 4-4 thriller with Luton. We’re backing Newcastle to snatch this one at +105, but given Forest’s strong scoring record, we also think Newcastle will win while conceding at +275.
Aston Villa vs. Manchester United. RIP to Aston Villa’s absurd home record, which was cruelly cut short by Newcastle at the end of January. The Villans hadn’t lost at home in over a year until the Magpies rolled up and trounced them 3-1. Now that the record is gone, teams are much less afraid to travel to Villa Park — teams like Man United.
United has had a no-good, awful, let’s-sweep-this-under-the-rug-and-forget-about-it kind of season, but it’s quietly stringing together some decent results in 2024. It drew with Spurs, turned around a bad scoreline to beat Wolves and (ahem) hammered West Ham. Things are far from perfect at United but it looks like Erik Ten Hag’s men are finally finding their rhythm. They’ll view this Villa clash as an opportunity for a statement-making win.
With Villa teetering on the edge of the Champions League places in fourth and United climbing up from the Europa League ones in sixth, we think this one’s too close to call. But we do have our eyes on two potential goalscorers: Villa’s Jamaican striker Leon Bailey, who just signed a new long-term contract with the club, and United’s Danish striker Rasmus Højlund, who broke his Premier League scoring duck against the Villans when United beat them 3-2 at Old Trafford over the holidays. Bailey is at +275 to score; Højlund is at +175. Both are worthy of your consideration.
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