Premier League best bets: The final stretch begins

It's been two long weeks, but the Premier League is officially back in session. Last weekend's international break marked the final pause of the 2023-24 season: from here on out, we'll have at least one game a week until the league wraps up on May 19.

For the first time in a long time, we're entering this final stretch with everything to play for. Three teams (Arsenal, Man City and Liverpool) are fighting for first place. Three teams (Aston Villa, Spurs and, because we're feeling charitable, Man United) are fighting for fourth. Seven teams (Sheffield United, Burnley, Nottingham Forest, Luton, Everton, Brentford and Crystal Palace) are fighting relegation. The rest are far from safe: some, like West Ham, are angling for European places, while others, like Bournemouth, are a few bad results away from getting dragged into a relegation dogfight. Eight matchdays remain. Every single one of them matters.

This matchday — the 30th of 38 — is unique in that it features one closely-run headliner (we'll get there tomorrow) and nine matches between teams who are miles apart in the table. Everyone's fighting for something, but hardly anyone is facing down its direct competition this weekend. This laces the matches with individual meaning but throws up opportunities for wild aberrations. It's never been a better time to bet.

But where are the best bets hiding? We think they're here:

Chelsea vs. Burnley. We spent the opening three paragraphs waxing lyrical about how everyone in the Premier League has something to play for ... but we're kicking things off with Chelsea, a team that just might sit in 11th for the rest of the season and render those paragraphs a waste. But this game isn't about Chelsea. It's about floundering, desperate, 19th-placed Burnley and whether or not it can turn its two-game Premier League unbeaten streak into three. In the "pros" column: Burnley had few players leave the UK on international duty and should be more rested than its glamorous competitor. In the "cons" column: it's playing away from home, and Burnley's away record is 1-10-3 this season.

Dig deeper into those away stats, though, and things get interesting. Burnley's draws exclusively came against mid-table opposition like Chelsea, and one of them came following an international break just like this one. With everything on the line for Burnley at the minute, we're backing them to shock the Blues and grab a point at +500.

Brentford vs. Man United, Saturday, March 30, 4 p.m. ET — This one's all about Ivan Toney, the disgraced Brentford striker making a comeback after a year on the sidelines. He scored in England's 2-2 draw with Belgium this week and vowed to "put things right" for club and country. Buoyed by his success with the Three Lions, we think he'll come out snarling this week — and we're backing him as an anytime goalscorer at +137. But it's not just Toney's momentum that makes us think he'll play to impress against United. It's recent reports that United may be interested in signing him as soon as the season ends.

Liverpool vs. Brighton, Sunday, March 31, 11:30 a.m. ET — This should be a fun one: two world-class midfields passing each other to death while two chaotic, underperforming front lines sky chance after perfectly constructed chance. Neither Liverpool nor Brighton has given us anything resembling consistency in front of goal, so we're looking toward other parts of the field for our bets. We think backing Alexis Mac Allister to make more than 2.5 tackles is smart at -120; Brighton has exactly the kind of midfield that will inspire Mac Allister to get physical. (But fans of our favorite bet — the elusive but oh-so-satisfying Darwin Nuñez header — should know that it's available at +550.)