Premier League best bets: Will Bournemouth have recipe for Cherries Jubilee?
The Premier League returns this weekend after a two-week international break, and we couldn’t be more excited for it. (International soccer is wonderful … but there’s only so much excitement to be gleaned from a midweek friendly against Oman in Minnesota.)
While most Premier League weekends have some clear standout matches, the scheduling software has thrown up some wild options this weekend: there’s no "headliner," but rather many knife-edge games between teams near each other in the table. And that’s great news for bettors: these close games offer more arbitrage opportunities than the headlining blowouts do.
But where are those opportunities hiding? We think you’ll find them here:
Man United vs. Brighton
Easily the most intriguing game of the weekend on paper, this is a matchup of two equal teams on very different trajectories. Man United is sinking fast, burdened by disinterested ownership and the petulant antics of players like Jadon Sancho; Brighton is rising, buoyed by prudent transfers and the goalscoring prowess of Solly March.
Though Brighton has slipped up once this season, it’s hard to see it screwing up the gameplan against haphazard Man United … so it’s bizarre to see that the odds still have Man United as favorites. The Red Devils’ past performance is doing a lot of heavy lifting there. At +210 to take the win, our money’s on Brighton — the inexplicable underdog — for this one.
Newcastle vs. Brentford
Newcastle was billed as a top-four challenger before the season began, and while it’s rarely been embarrassing, it hasn’t quite lived up to that expectation just yet. A dominant 5-1 victory over Aston Villa on opening day fed into three straight losses against Liverpool, Man City and Brighton. Brentford, meanwhile, has been the league’s dark horse. It’s one of just a few undefeated teams in the Premier League, thumping Fulham 3-0 and drawing with Spurs, Crystal Palace and Bournemouth.
Newcastle is a stronger than Fulham in theory, but we think Brentford’s savviness could keep its run of draws going. At +300, a tie feels like a solid choice here.
Bournemouth vs. Chelsea
It’s hard not to root for Bournemouth, the lovable South Coast club known colloquially as the Cherries. While it’s currently winless in the league and languishing in 16th place, it’s had an awful run of games, facing the likes of Spurs, Liverpool, West Ham and savvy Brentford in its first four fixtures.
On the other side of the coin, it’s hard to root for Chelsea, the megalomaniac London club that just passed the $1B mark on player transfers in the past 18 months. Despite cycling through seemingly half of the world’s professional soccer players and settling on an all-star lineup of young hotshots, Chelsea’s won just once this season, against hapless, newly promoted Luton. (And even that victory was much less self-assured than it should’ve been.)
It'd be — pardon the pun — delicious if the Cherries managed to defeat Chelsea. But with Chelsea’s players finally starting to gel after a full season of chaos, it feels awfully unlikely. Scoring, though, shouldn’t be beyond Bournemouth’s capabilities. At +220 and +350 respectively, betting on Dominic Solanke or Antoine Semenyo as anytime goalscorers could be smart this weekend.
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