Premier League Game of the Week: Liverpool and Arsenal battle for first
Before this Premier League season began — before Kevin De Bruyne limped off in the opening game, before Aston Villa became unlikely giant killers, before Luton Town’s stadium was even ready for visitors — Manchester City had a 90.2% chance of winning the title.
Think about that. Think about the utter completeness of this City team, the near certainty of it achieving some form of success. In the world’s most popular and competitive sport, the odds had City leagues beyond its competition.
We mention those odds to highlight just how far they have fallen: today, City has just a 39.3% chance of taking home the Premier League trophy. That precipitous drop is due to City’s own woeful form, but it’d be churlish not to credit the three teams ahead of them in the table who have seized upon City’s struggles to set up their own title bids: Liverpool, Arsenal and Aston Villa.
This Premier League weekend is all about these three teams. We’re focusing on Liverpool and Arsenal here, since they’re playing each other in an all-out brawl for first place, but we beg you not to forget Villa in all of this. If Liverpool and Arsenal draw and Aston Villa beat last-place Sheffield United, Villa will be top of the table on Christmas. What an incredible gift for a fanbase that hasn’t received many in recent seasons.
But will Liverpool and Arsenal settle for a draw? It’s hard to see it happening. These are two aggressive, forward-thinking teams who rarely settle for a truce. Liverpool has been faultless at home this season, while Arsenal has been faultless, period, losing just once to title challengers Aston Villa. Both teams will see this game as an opportunity to stake their claim on a title that was once halfway to Manchester. Both will be ready to battle for it.
But where are the best bets hiding? Here’s what we’ll be keeping an eye on as Arsenal travel to Anfield to take on the Reds.
Goalscorers — Arsenal has many attackers capable of causing Liverpool pain, but none more consistent than Gabriel Jesus. He’s been involved in goals in each of his last three visits to Liverpool and is well-positioned to keep that streak going this weekend. At +260 to score at any time, we think he’s an excellent choice here.
Also clocking in at +260 to score? Liverpool’s Luis Diaz. The Colombian playmaker is famous for his impish, rhythm-destroying play, and we think he’s likely to cause Arsenal’s defense some problems.
Corners — We’ve mentioned Arsenal’s insane corner record before, but it bears repeating: this team wins set pieces like it’s going out of style. Add in Liverpool’s whopping 12 last weekend against Man United and betting on corners starts to feel like a decent plan. 10 or more corners at +120 feels like a safe choice this weekend, but betting on 13 or more at +500 could be fun for riskier bettors.
Cards — And who, pray tell, will be responsible for controlling Luis Diaz? Arsenal’s Ben White, whose performances (and hair choices) have raised eyebrows this season. White is a capable defender, but he’s liable to be pulled out position and react — which means he’s good for a card in tense matches like this one. We’re backing him to get carded at +275.
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