Premier League Game of the Week: Newcastle and Arsenal flip the old script
Cast your mind back to the mid 2000s: trucker hats, Myspace and Timbaland on the radio. The Premier League had just celebrated the 10-year anniversary of its modern form and Manchester United was running away with yet another title under Sir Alex Ferguson. Challenging it, sometimes fiercely, was its closest competitor: Arsenal Football Club.
Arsenal, then under longtime coach Arsene Wenger, had completed its "invincible" season just a few years earlier (they won the title without losing a single game.) But despite its clear talent — and its excellent head-to-head record against the Red Devils — Arsenal struggled to push Man United to the limit. The reason? Games exactly like this week’s Game of the Week. Games like Newcastle away.
While Arsenal was riding high in the mid-aughts, Newcastle was ebbing at its lowest low. The club was a wreck, fighting relegation nearly every season; you were more likely to see Charles N’Zogbia than the likes of Alexander Isak at St. James’ Park. But for some reason, Newcastle always seemed ready and willing to snatch points off Arsenal. The prevailing theory at the time was that Arsenal was weak and vulnerable to brutal, physical play; mid-winter trips up north to Newcastle to face its motley crew of relegation-threatened thugs were known to be its Achilles heel. Things weren’t great for the Magpies, but they always seemed capable of messing with Arsenal’s day.
Back in the real world, things have changed drastically. Newcastle, now owned by a Saudi PIF and waltzing around Europe with more money than just about anyone, is not the punchline it used to be; Arsenal, one of the strongest and most consistent teams in England, has no desire in letting a team like Newcastle make it the butt of the joke. The two teams are surprisingly close to one another in skill and potential. So who will prevail in this weekend’s clash up north? What are the bets worth considering? We think they look something like this.
Moneyline — We aren’t kidding when we say this one is close — Bet365 has a Newcastle win at +180, an Arsenal win at +160 and a draw at +220. Any single one of these options is defensible from a data standpoint. But we’re backing Arsenal at +160 here, largely because of recent results. While Newcastle used to have Arsenal’s number, the Gunners have won eight of their last 10 matches against the Magpies and kept eight clean sheets in the process. Newcastle is struggling with injury and suspension woes and is not expected to be fighting fit for this one.
Yellow Cards — You couldn’t dream up a better matchup than Newcastle’s Anthony Gordon and Arsenal. Gordon is exactly the kind of player who knows how to rile up Arsenal; Arsenal is exactly the kind of team that knows how to rile up Gordon. At +175 to be yellow carded in this match, Gordon is as safe a bet as they come.
Corners — We’ve talked about Arsenal being a corner machine before; while its output has shrunk in recent weeks it’s still racking up at least five per game. Newcastle is a bit more unpredictable on this front, but when it goes for it, it really goes: seven corners or more are not out of question for the Magpies. With all that in mind, betting on 10.5 corners or more at +110 feels smart; betting on 12-14 corners at +300 could be a great option for braver punters.
More must-reads: