Forecast: South Pacific to Dish Out Sizable Surf

Below is a quick outlook for a few zones for this upcoming swell event. Note this is how things are shaping up at this point, and are subject to change pending progress of the soon-to-develop storm/swell.

TAHITI: Solid and a little windy, but OK

Although the storm will not be perfectly aimed at Tahiti, the fetch orientation still looks highly favorable for a strong swell event. Given the storm’s massive size, intense winds, and relatively close proximity to the islands, a solid SSW swell pulse in the 210–190° range is expected to develop for Tahiti and French Polynesia.

Surf is forecast to steadily build through Tuesday the 26th, peaking Tuesday night before gradually easing through Wednesday the 27th. Expert-only breaks like Teahupoʻo are expected to see powerful double- to triple-overhead sets during the peak of the event, with the largest waves potentially reaching 15–20+ feet on the face — especially late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Consistency should be good.

Trade winds are expected to remain fairly breezy throughout the swell event, but overall wind direction appears favorable for southwest-facing reefs in Tahiti. Side-offshore ESE winds are forecast for Tuesday, before veering more easterly and offshore on Wednesday, helping to maintain cleaner conditions at exposed breaks.

HAWAII: Fun size and clean

The storm’s strongest winds are forecast to be aimed to the east of Hawaii, which would significantly limit the overall size potential for the Hawaiian Islands. Even so, the south shores of the Aloha State are still expected to see a fun, worthwhile run of surf from this event.

Many standout exposed breaks should build into the chest- to head-high range, with occasional overhead sets at the better magnets during the peak of the SSW-S swell (200-180°). The strongest surf is expected over the back half of Friday the 29th and through Saturday the 30th.

Conditions also look favorable, with the typical ENE trade winds likely accompanying the swell and providing clean, groomed surf across many of Hawaii’s premier south shore breaks.

The Americas: Sizable surf with good conditions to be found

After propagating through the Pacific Islands, this SW-SW swell (215-200°) will eventually find it's way to the Americas. Arrival time for the initial long period forerunners will be over the weekend of May 30th-31st, but we're likely to see the meat of the swell through the first few days of June.

Many spots throughout Central America, Mexico, and California will see surf rise up to the head high zone during this run, with overhead sets for standouts and occasionally well overhead for select magnets (strongest overhead through Central America and Mexico). A freak spot like Puerto Escondido, Mexico may be going XL.

For most regions, the cleanest and most favorable wind conditions are expected during the morning hours each day, before a seabreeze is likely to develop by the afternoons.