Though the off-season was incredibly short, tennis fans around the world were eager to see the ATP Tour back up and running in Brisbane… Why? For the return of 22-time Grand Slam champion Rafael Nadal, of course! We’ve tried to predict whether he’ll sustain his comeback form against Jordan Thompson in the quarterfinals, along with three other matches including Grigor Dimitrov, Holger Rune, and Matteo Arnaldi.
ATP Brisbane Quarterfinal Prediction
Grigor Dimitrov vs Rinky Hijikata
Grigor Dimitrov has picked up right where he left off in 2023. He came through a tricky first round in Murray before dispatching Altmaier for the loss of only three games.
Rinky Hijikata could be troublesome if the Bulgarian is feeling off his game—but why should he be under the reassuring guidance of Dani Vallverdu? We’ve got a decent amount of faith that 2024 is going to be a good year for Dimitrov.
Prediction: Dimitrov in 2
Holger Rune vs James Duckworth
Holger Rune will be very pleased to have come through his first two rounds against Purcell and Shevchenko. He’s not always a player that hits the ground running — he has a worse winning percentage in ATP first rounds than he does in quarterfinals or semifinals.
Now that he’s settled into the tournament, James Duckworth shouldn’t prove too difficult a quarterfinalist. This is the Aussie’s ninth ATP quarterfinal in 13 years on the tour—he’s bound to be feeling a bit nervy, potentially giving the Dane free reign to dominate proceedings.
Prediction: Rune in 2
Roman Safiullin vs Matteo Arnaldi
This feels like an even match-up on all accounts. Safiullin and Arnaldi are similarly ranked, possess offensive games centred around their huge forehands, have come through two very tight first rounds, and are both in the ascendancy in their form.
Whilst Arnaldi perhaps looks the more likely of the two to sustain his peaks, one difference might be the slight question marks around his fitness. Has the off-season been fruitful or has he made little physical improvement? Backed by the extensive resources of the Italian Tennis Federation, we’re willing to bet Arnaldi has put in the work required to keep this sort of form up.
Prediction: Arnaldi in 3
Rafael Nadal vs Jordan Thompson
Rafael Nadal is back. Whilst his first two opponents in Thiem and Kubler may not be the sternest of opposition, it’s immediately clear watching the Spaniard that:
- The serve isn’t being hampered by any injuries.
- B. Nadal’s footwork and power are as efficient as they’ve ever been.
Jordan Thompson will be able to keep the match a little tighter with bigger weapons in his arsenal. At the end of the day though, we’ve no reason to doubt Nadal’s forehand trumps 90% of the tour, even on an average day.
Prediction: Nadal in 2
More must-reads: