The 96-man draw at ATP Indian Wells has dwindled down to two as world No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz faces world No. 4 Daniil Medvedev with the BNP Paribas Open title on the line. The duo met in this Masters final last year, with the young Spaniard blasting Medvedev off the court 6-3, 6-2. Will we see more of the same on Sunday?
ATP Indian Wells Final Prediction
Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev
Head-to-Head: Alcaraz 3-2 Medvedev
After an inauspicious start to the 2024 season, Spanish phenom Carlos Alcaraz has seemingly found his stride in the desert. Alcaraz came to the BNP Paribas Open with a 6-3 record this season, including an injury retirement in Rio three weeks ago. By all accounts, the 20-year-old has fully recovered from his right ankle tweak as he looks to repeat as ATP Indian Wells champion.
Alcaraz dropped his first set of the tournament 6-7(5) to Matteo Arnaldi but has been on an impressive run since. The Spaniard won eight consecutive sets without dropping more than three games as he raced to a semifinal blockbuster against Jannik Sinner. The Italian jumped all over Alcaraz after an early rain delay, taking the first set 6-1. However, it was the Spaniard who used elite variety to cruise in the last two sets, 6-3, 6-2.
Indian Wells is the second tournament Daniil Medvedev has played since his heartbreaking loss in the Australian Open final. His run this week has been nothing short of terrific, racking up wins over Sebastian Korda, Grigor Dimitrov, Holger Rune, and Tommy Paul en route to the final. He has been clinical in important moments, digging into the back of the court and playing as many balls as needed to win the point on the slow desert courts.
Tale of the Tape
This will be the fifth meeting between Alcaraz and Medvedev over the last calendar year. The Spaniard has won three of those battles, including a straightforward victory in the ATP Indian Wells final last year. During Medvedev’s semifinal win over Alcaraz at the US Open, we saw an elite serving day from the Russian. He knocked in over 81 percent of his first serves, consistently putting Alcaraz on his heels.
I doubt we see Meddy serve that well in this final — he only has two matches with an 80+ first-serve percentage this year. Alcaraz has too many ways to puncture his counterpart for me to feel comfortable picking Medvedev in this match. Expect a heavy dosage of drop shots from the Spaniard, as well as some blistering inside-out forehands to the Russian’s backhand.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 3
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