We are down to the final four at ATP Marrakech, with four competitors ranked outside the current top 60. That said, one of these players is not like the others. Former World No. 6 Matteo Berrettini is looking for his first ATP final since October 2022. He gets a tough semifinal test against the in-form Mariano Navone. As always, we at LWOT have the preview and prediction of both matches. But who will advance to the final?
ATP Marrakech Semifinal Predictions
Pavel Kotov vs Roberto Carballes Baena
Head-to-Head: first meeting
This is a big-time match for two players currently ranked outside the top 60. Pavel Kotov is seeking his second ATP final (Stockholm 2023). Roberto Carballes Baena is looking for his third final appearance (Quito 2018, Marrakech 2023). The Spaniard won this event last season and always plays his best tennis during the clay season. His ability to dig out of the corners and keep rallies alive lends itself to this surface. On the other hand, Kotov is more of a pure ball striker but is also adept at playing long points. This should be a back-and-forth battle, but I give the slight edge to the Spaniard and his comfortability at ATP Marrakech.
Prediction: Carballes Baena in 3
Matteo Berrettini vs Mariano Navone
Head-to-Head: first meeting
It has been a terrific week for former World No. 6 Matteo Berrettini. The 27-year-old Italian had not played since the US Open before making the final of the Phoenix Challenger in mid-March. After a first-round exit in Miami, Berrettini turned up his play with three wins at ATP Marrakech. He has taken out two seeded players, including countryman Lorenzo Sonego, in the quarters. Mariano Navone has been dominant on the clay this season. The 23-year-old Argentine is 9-1 in his last ten matches, with five of those wins coming against players ranked higher than him.
Berrettini is clearly the more talented player, but I have questions about how he will handle a grinder like Navone. If the Argentine can get Berrettini’s serve back in play and lengthen the rallies, he has a terrific shot at advancing to a second ATP final in as many events.
Prediction: Navone in 3
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