Why Coco Gauff is primed to reach the Australian Open Finals and win her second major
American tennis prodigy Coco Gauff enters Thursday’s Australian Open semi-final against World No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka as the betting underdog. Still, if history is any indicator, there’s ample reason to feel optimistic about Gauff defying the odds and winning her second major.
For starters, Gauff defeated Sabalenka to win her first major -- the 2023 US Open -- last September, becoming the first American teenager to win the title since Serena Williams in 1999.
Furthermore, Gauff leads in the overall head-to-head battle against Sabalenka, winning four of their six matches dating back to 2015. Gauff also owns an 83-79 edge in games played, albeit each of their previous encounters were competitive affairs, going at least 2.7 sets a match.
The head-to-head advantage aside, Gauff is emerging as the new Queen of Hard Courts, having dropped just one set across her last twelve matches in majors. Since the start of the North American hard-court season last July, Gauff has gone a remarkable 34-4, maintaining an 89.4 winning percentage.
There’s also a legacy at stake for the 19-year-old.
Having notched up 49 wins at majors already, Gauff has tied her childhood idol, Serena, for the second-most wins by an American teenager in the Open era. Only Jennifer Capriati (50) has more wins.
If Gauff were to capture the Aussie Open title this weekend, she’d have surpassed Capriati.
In fairness to Sabalenka – the reigning Australian Open women’s champion – Gauff is rightfully the underdog. Sabalenka has been on a tear of her own, recently becoming just the third female player in the 21st century to reach six major semi-finals in a row since Serena, who did it twice, and Capriati.
However, if their Finals at Flushing Meadows showed anything, Gauff’s stellar defense can neutralize Sabalenka’s high-octane offense -- especially on the hard court surfaces.
All signs point to a riveting contest.
If Gauff were to "upset" Sabalenka, she'd walk into this weekend's final – against either 12th-seeded Qinwen Zheng or Dayana Yastremska – as the overwhelming odds-on favorite to the title. As such, in many ways, Gauff could be playing for all the marbles on Thursday, not Sunday.
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