March Madness best bets: Finding value in conference tournaments
There are four leagues starting their conference tournaments over the next couple of days: the Atlantic Sun Conference, the Patriot League, the Sun Belt Conference, and the Horizon League.
Here is a quick rundown for each in case you are wanting to get in some action.
Atlantic Sun Conference
Regular season winner: Liberty Flames and Kennesaw State Owls (tied at 15-3, both get first-round byes)
Conference Tournament Favorite: Liberty -230
The Flames and Owls look similar from afar, same W-L in the league and just one more loss for the Owls overall. If you believe in the metrics though the gap is wide, that is why the Flames are prohibitive favorites this week.
Tournament value: Kennesaw State +300
The Owls beat the Flames at home and I believe that costs them the tiebreaker. All games are played at the higher-seeded team's arena so they would have home court advantage if they meet in the finals.
Lipscomb (+2500) and Eastern Kentucky (+1600) were the only other A-Sun teams to beat the Flames this season so there is some value there too.
Patriot League
Regular season winner: Colgate Raiders (17-1)
Conference favorite: Colgate -220
The Raiders are an elite shooting team and ran away with the league this year.
Tournament value: Lehigh +1600
This is another event where the higher-seeded team will be the host throughout. That is going to make Colgate very tough to beat. Lehigh is not next in the odds table, second and third on the list are the service academies. They compete in this league but the talent level is different than at the other schools. Lehigh is probably better than them both and they finished tied with Navy in the standings.
Sun Belt Conference
Regular season winner: Southern Miss Golden Eagles (14-4)
Conference favorite: Marshall +200
This was the Thundering Herd's first year in the league and they won a close battle.
Tournament value: Southern Miss +450
The top six teams get byes to start this event and it is at a neutral site in Pensacola, Fla. Marshall finished in second place but has the best KenPom rating in the league. Southern Miss is second but the top four in the league are all really tight. The Golden Eagles are fourth in odds so there is good value and they won at Liberty this season, proving they can beat good teams on the road.
Horizon League
Regular season winner: Youngstown State Penguins (15-5)
Conference favorite: Youngstown State +150
The Horizon was bunchy at the top. That is what 20 leagues games will do.
Tournament value: Cleveland State +400
The semifinals and finals for this event are at a neutral site — Indiana Farmers Coliseum. I like the value of Cleveland State. They finished tied for second in the league and got one of 3 byes into the second round of the tourney. They also beat Youngstown State and are the most balanced team from those at the top of the league.
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