March Madness: How to bet on small conference futures  

Format & Location

It is all single elimination but Conference tournaments are still a bit of a mixed bag. Some use on-campus sites, some use neutral venues, and some a combination thereof. You want to be sure of the game location before assuming an underdog will knock off the top seed because doing so in front of their fans is difficult. Further, some of these events are really stacked against the lower programs in the league giving byes to the top seeds to make sure their best teams have the best chance to qualify for the Big Dance. It is not a bad thing, it just is what it is. 

Form & Health

Depending on the league, the talent gap between teams might not be as big as the records indicate. Most of these programs at this level do not have any pro talent on their rosters, so they rely on total team efforts. Struggles of small conference teams don't usually reach the national media either so injuries and style changes are off most handicapper's radar. You probably don't even know who the second-best power forward is in the Horizon League, but if he missed 3 weeks of action that might have cost his team dearly in terms of wins and losses, but nobody really talked about it. If you are planning to jump in on these events I would take a really close look at the current health and form of the teams over the last couple of weeks rather than season-long narratives. They are going to give you the best picture of who is in the best position to win, rather than who should. 

The Matchups

I know this one might seem obvious, but matchups matter a ton at this level. Some teams have size and some don't. Experience is a major thing and offensive and defensive playing styles matter too - which is short for coaching matters. These are not hard fast rules but there is no tomorrow at this stage of the season, no more development points, and coaches are playing for their jobs in some cases. At this level just making the NCAAs can kickstart a career and missing it can kill it so when teams find something that works they get ruthless. Looking back to see how these teams played when they faced each other gives us a major data point in how things might transpire in a game that could be the last of the season for each program. 

The Bracket

Last not least, look at the brackets for these events and whether they are subject to reseeding. In some cases teams get lucky and face teams they have beaten before and in others they have to face the only team that beat them in the league. Do a little handicapping to see how things are likely to shake out as part of your approach. Per the above, the matchups matter. 

Hopefully, this helps with the approach. Next, we will take a look at some specific leagues and see where we can find some winners.