Michigan State basketball fans immediately overreacted after the loss to Northwestern on Sunday. Let’s discuss it.
Michigan State basketball did not look good against Northwestern a few days ago, not even close to good. The Spartans lost to the Wildcats 88-74 but it felt even worse than that. A lot of fans were frustrated after this loss, and rightfully so. The Spartans looked like a brand-new team heading into this game after winning five straight. Not only did they win five straight, but we were dominant in each game.
Don’t get me wrong, I was frustrated after this loss, too. But some fans had one major overreaction to this loss.
What was this overreaction?
There were plenty of bad things you could have said about the team’s performance or the season overall after this loss. How about the inability to respond after a big run from Northwestern to end the first half? Or the fact that the Big Ten regular-season title is slipping through their hands already?
Those would have been valid complaints, but this next one is insane. Many fans were saying that this team won’t even make the NCAA Tournament. Now I totally get overreacting to losses, it happens after loss especially right after the game ends. But this reaction makes no sense.
MSU’s NCAA Tournament resume is still in good shape
The Spartans’ resume would still be more than good enough if the NCAA Tournament selection show were today. A 9-6 overall record on paper doesn’t look great, but they do have some solid wins. The domination of Baylor will likely be the best win all season, but wins against Indiana State and Butler look really good on our resume as well. Their worst loss, in most people’s eyes, doesn’t look so bad anymore as James Madison’s current record is 14-1.
Now the 1-3 Big Ten record is hideous, there is no denying that. But that’s not enough to keep MSU out of the Big Dance on its own.
ESPN’s Bracketology projection as of Jan. 9 also had MSU comfortably in the tournament field as a 7-seed. The last at-large bids are usually 12 seeds, so the Spartans still have lots of room for comfort there. I also look at the website TeamRankings regularly which simulates the rest of the college basketball season thousands of times each day to predict the most likely seed for each team. That projection has the Spartans as an 8-seed.
By no means am I guaranteeing Michigan State basketball makes the NCAA Tournament. There is obviously a lot of work still to be done. But Tom Izzo has been to a record 25 straight NCAA Tournaments for a reason. That doesn’t just happen by accident.
So yes, this season may be trending towards a failure in some people’s eyes. This is Michigan State at the end of the day, and it expects better than a 7-8 seed. But as I sit here today writing this post, the Spartans are not in jeopardy of missing the NCAA Tournament.
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