NCAAB futures: Pac-12 sunset winner?

This is the last season for the Pac-12 as we know it. Unfortunately, unlike football, it does not look like it is going out with a bang on the hardwood. The Pac-12 is tied for the most NCAA Championships with the ACC, but a lot of that work was done by UCLA during their phenomenal run.

The Bruins look like they are taking a step back this season, making Arizona the odds-on favorite to win the league as it plays itself out for the last time. The Wildcats are generally among the national elite but the program has not done much when it matters most in March under current coach Tommy Lloyd. He is 1-for-2 in winning the league though. 

Here is a closer look at the Pac-12 and who might win it this season. 

2023-24 Pac-12 Futures 

Arizona +200
USC +300
UCLA +400
Colorado +700
Oregon +900
Stanford +2000
Utah +3500
Arizona State +3500
Washington +4000
Cal +5000
Washington State +7000
Oregon State +25000

Arizona deserves to be the favorite this season, it is always very good and has a good amount coming back ... and the Wildcats added mercurial scorer Caleb Love. Only time will tell if he can be more of a team player and find some consistency. +200 is not a bad payoff at the top of the odds table, but I am looking for more. 

USC is my pick to win it though, and at +300 there is a nice payoff too. The conference is a bit down this season and USC looks primed featuring guard Isaiah Collier, the top freshman in the nation, plus Boogie Ellis, a guard capable of leading the conference in scoring (and maybe even be player of the year - see my article). Upfront they have more than enough size and skill to compete and Bronny James might be a contributor too. The Trojans have good skill and depth.

At UCLA, everyone is gone from their recent Final Four run. As a result, they have gone hunting for talent overseas. I suppose they are trying to mimic the success of Lloyd at Arizona in that regard and the strategy has merit, but it is new for the Bruins. This feels more like a development season than a championship one to me. 

Colorado is the only other team that can really push the programs at the top of the league. Guard KJ Simpson and forward Tristen Da Silva are all-conference level, matching each other at 15.9 ppg last season. Forward Cody Williams is an exciting freshman for the Buffs. Colorado has great size but Simpson is going to have to play a lot for them to succeed. 

When you look at the rest of the league you see a player here and there like center Branden Carlson at Utah or forward Spencer Jones at Stanford, but nobody has enough of a roster to challenge the teams at the top. It is not a good sign to see the programs at the bottom of the league getting picked apart for transfers like Harrison Ingram moving on to North Carolina from Stanford. Someone in the lower half will win some games by being marginally better than the other team but when they face the top of the league it is going to be very evident that there is a major gap

Best Bet: USC
Sleeper: Colorado

No deep sleeper for the Pac-12 this season. There just isn't that depth this season.