College football Week 11: Picks and preview

Before we get to a highly anticipated Week 12 for the Pac-12, the league's big dogs have some seemingly manageable hurdles to clear. USC has rival UCLA next weekend at the Rose Bowl, and after winning its last two games over Arizona and Cal by a combined 14 points, it's probably not wise to overlook anybody. Perhaps even the likes of Colorado, which averages the third-fewest points in the nation (15.6) while sitting second-to-last in scoring defense (40.2).

Prediction: Colorado (+34)

LSU's overtime win against Alabama was one for the ages and essentially justified Brian Kelly's decision to leave Notre Dame for the Tigers. For the moment, LSU sits atop the SEC West Division, but this has the potential to be an interesting matchup. Sure, Arkansas just lost at home to Liberty and is mired in a four-game losing streak against Top 25 opponents this season. But the Razorbacks need a win to become bowl eligible and seriously long for something positive to a rather disappointing campaign. Arkansas snapped a five-game skid to LSU in 2021.

Prediction: LSU (-3)

Illinois remains in the driver's seat to win the Big 12 West Division, and a victory here would seem to all but get the job done, however, the Illini need to rebound after their six-game winning streak ended with a 23-15 home loss to Michigan State. Purdue has won two straight and 13 of the last 17 meetings with Illinois, but the Boilermakers are trying to avoid a third consecutive loss after totaling 27 points against Wisconsin and Iowa.

Prediction: Illinois (-6 1/2)

Three straight wins, and the last two over ranked Syracuse and Clemson squads by a combined 38 points, have the Irish ranked in the CFP. If college football fans are not aware of Notre Dame running back Logan Diggs, they should be. The sophomore has rushed for 329 yards during the Irish's three-game winning streak. They've also won four in a row over Navy -- and the last three meetings by an average margin of 27.3 points.

Prediction: Notre Dame (-17)

Kentucky is not ranked in the AP Top 25 but is part of the second CFP rankings. The Wildcats are by no means an SEC contender, but they have won two of three following last weekend's four-point victory at Missouri. So, it's interesting to see how the CFP committee values Kentucky, or perhaps the SEC, in general. The Wildcats have won six straight over Vandy, and the last four meetings were held in Lexington.

Prediction: Kentucky (-18)

The Buckeyes stand pat in the CFP rankings after surviving the brutal conditions to win 21-7 over lowly Northwestern last weekend. The weather should be better this week as Ohio State aims for a 28th consecutive win over Indiana, which enters mired in a six-game losing streak. This is another opportunity for the Buckeyes to show off their depth, but Miyan Williams (429 rushing yards, 11 touchdowns in his last five games) should be able to get his work in early.

Prediction: Ohio State (-40)

Tennessee might be out of the SEC title race, but it remains just outside the top four of the CFP rankings. So, stranger things have happened, and the Volunteers might still remain in play for the national championship should things fall in their favor over the next few weeks. That said, Tennessee has a solid opportunity to rebound from that 27-13 loss at Georgia. It's won the last three meetings with Missouri, including the last two, by a combined 61 points.

Prediction: Tennessee (-20 1/2)

Maybe the Tigers of Clemson really were a facade of a national champion contender. Let's also speak the truth that DJ Uiagalelei is not really a "big game" quarterback. In the last two games in rallying to beat Syracuse, where he was pulled, and last weekend's 21-loss at Notre Dame, Uiagalelei has thrown one touchdown and three interceptions. For what it's worth, he threw for 220 yards with two interceptions during Clemson's 30-24 win at Louisville. Meanwhile, Malik Cunningham (1,477 passing yards; 541 rushing yards, 11 touchdowns) might be the best quarterback on the field Saturday as the Cardinals look for a fifth consecutive win.

Prediction: Clemson (-7)

In the last four weeks, Michigan has beaten its opponents by an average margin of 25.5 points. There's a real chance that trend continues against Nebraska, which has lost three straight overall, 20 in a row against Top 25 teams and the last two meetings with Michigan. Individually, the Wolverines' Blake Corum continues to state his Heisman Trophy case while averaging 6.0 yards per carry on the season and totaling 952 with nine touchdowns in the last six games.

Prediction: Nebraska (+29 1/2)

Say this about North Carolina State, it has not folded in the wake of quarterback Devin Leary's season-ending injury. That's because freshman MJ Morris has undoubtedly stepped up in the Wolfpacks' last two wins over Virginia Tech and Wake Forest, throwing for 475 yards with six touchdowns and no interceptions. N.C. State's won three of the last four over Boston College, which has dropped four straight overall and all four 2022 road contests.

Prediction: North Carolina State (-18)

According to ESPN, since 2011, only two times has Alabama entered a game without a shot at the national championship. That happened in 2013 and '19 -- both in bowl games. This will be the case this weekend, and it's not even Thanksgiving. The Crimson Tide last dropped three games during a season in 2010, but Mississippi is amid a strong season, with its lone defeat also at LSU. The Rebels have dropped six straight versus Alabama, but do we really know the true mental state of the Tide at the moment?

Prediction: Ole Miss (+11 1/2)

As long as Penn State doesn't have to play any ranked Big Ten opponents, it should be in good shape. The Nittany Lions have won six in a row against unranked Big Ten foes. A run that began with last season's 31-14 rout at Maryland. They've also averaged 40.3 points while winning two of the last three. That said, Terps quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa has thrown for 653 yards with four touchdowns and an interception in two games versus Penn State.

Prediction: Penn State (-10)

This might be the Group of Five game of the season. Well, at least in the American Athletic Conference -- for the moment. Tulane has won its last four games by at least 10 points. Then again, the Green Wave has also lost four straight against Central Florida and nine of the last 11 in this series. The Knights have already knocked off Cincinnati, so a victory in New Orleans, and they would be looking good in terms of the conference.

Prediction: UCF (+2)

No surprise that Georgia sits atop the second CFP rankings. By beating Tennessee by double-digits, the Bulldogs continue to take on and down all comers. Another test awaits this weekend against Mississippi State, which is 5-0 at home and trying to beat the nation's No. 1 team at home for the first time since a 6-3 victory over then-top-ranked Alabama on Nov. 1, 1980. While we're not ready to call an upset, this could be a tough cover for Georgia, which once again must handle a hostile environment. Georgia has won the last three meetings in this series.

Prediction: Mississippi State (+16)

The Ducks lead the way when it comes to ranked Pac-12 teams in the CFP. Utah is up next week for Oregon, but first is another sort of rivalry game versus Washington, which rounds out this week's playoff rankings. Earlier this season, Washington's Michael Penix Jr. (3,232 passing yards, 23 touchdowns, five interceptions) was all the rage. Now, Oregon's Bo Nix -- 2,322 passing yards, 22 TDs, three INTs; 420 rushing yards, 13 TDs during an eight-game winning streak -- is a legitimate Heisman contender. The Ducks have won two straight and 15 of the last 17 against the Huskies.

Prediction: Oregon (-13 1/2)

Kansas State has dropped two of its last three after falling at home to surging Texas. It won't get any easier this weekend at Baylor, where the Wildcats have lost their last two trips and amid an overall four-game losing streak in the series. The Bears, meanwhile, are eying a fourth consecutive victory after beating Kansas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma. K-State might be part of the CFP rankings, but Baylor appears to be the better team at the moment.

Prediction: Baylor (-2 1/2)

The marquee matchup of the week. Especially since TCU has moved its way into the top four of the CFP rankings. However, the Horned Frogs have trailed in the second half in three of their last four Big 12 contests. That resilience to rally could be put to the test again this weekend against the Longhorns, who have won three of four overall -- and their last three at home. TCU has won six of the last eight meetings with Texas, but the squads have split the last four.

Prediction: Texas (-7)

The Tar Heels have won five in a row, and the way Clemson has played of late, there's a belief that perhaps they can win the ACC title. Of course, they have a major hurdle at Wake this weekend. Yes, the Demon Deacons have dropped two in a row, but both came on the road. North Carolina has won the last two meetings, both at home, but has dropped the last three matchups played in Winston-Salem. The matchup between UNCs' Drake Maye (2,964 passing yards, 31 touchdowns, three interceptions; 513 rushing yards) and Wake Forest's Sam Hartman (2,423 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, nine interceptions) should be fun to watch.

Prediction: Wake Forest (-3 1/2)

Let's give Florida State coach Mike Norvell some credit for the way the Seminoles have fared this season. They have wins over LSU, Louisville and just drubbed highly overrated rival Miami last weekend. This is another test for Florida State at Syracuse, which was a college football darling amid its 6-0 start. However, the Orange have dropped three in a row, including the last two versus Notre Dame and Pittsburgh, by a combined 27 points.

Prediction: Syracuse (+6 1/2)

The Utes are banged up somewhat on the offensive side of the ball, but they've won all five of their home game by an average margin of 29.2 points. Utah is also 6-2 against Stanford since the start of the 1989 season; however, both of the Cardinal victories have come on the road. That said, with Oregon awaiting the Utes next weekend, it should take care of business before it can focus on the game that should decide its Pac-12 fate.

Prediction: Utah (+24)

Arizona has lost four straight games -- all in the Pac-12. However, perhaps it's a gut feeling, but UCLA might be looking ahead to USC next week. Again, just a hunch that this game will be closer than most would assume, and UCLA has yielded at least 32 points in four of the last five games. The Bruins have won the last two meetings by a combined 35 points, so this would be a serious upset.

Prediction: Arizona (+19 1/2)

Liberty remains part of the AP Top 25, checking in at No. 19, but is still not getting any CFP love, which is understandable. But, the independent Flames have won six in a row, with the last two coming against BYU and versus Arkansas on the road. Liberty has allowed an average of 18.3 points during that winning streak. UConn, meanwhile, has won four of five during its resurgence under coach Jim Mora. However, the Huskies average just 18.5 points on the season.

Prediction: Liberty (-14 1/2)

These border rivals are two of the four teams sitting at 3-3 in the Big Ten West. Now, both beat Purdue, but each also lost to Illinois. The Badgers and Hawkeyes have each won two in a row entering this contest. A pair of offenses that have struggled in 2022 combined to total 115 points in the last two games. Wisconsin has won eight of the last 10 meetings, but the most recent meeting at Iowa City in 2020 went to the Hawkeyes.

Prediction: Iowa (+1 1/2)

South Carolina has won five of six, with two of those victories coming on the road -- at Kentucky and last weekend versus Vanderbilt. However, the Gamecocks have dropped three in a row at Florida, where the Gators are averaging 31.7 points this season. However, Florida fell in its most recent home contest to LSU on Oct. 15. The Gators, who won at Texas A&M last weekend, have only won consecutive games once this season -- Oct. 2 and Oct. 8.

Prediction: Florida (-7 1/2)

Identical overall and conference records and matching five-game losing streaks. Not at all what either the Aggies or Tigers expected would be the case coming into this prime-time matchup. Texas A&M has won the last two meetings, but it's 0-3 in true road games this season, Auburn, meanwhile, has allowed an average of 42.5 points during the last four games. When looking at the big picture, on the surface, Auburn appears to be the worse of two situations, but what do we make of Jimbo Fisher's fate in College Station?

Prediction: Auburn (-2)