College football Week 5: What we learned
There were some upsets last week, there always are, but the real story of Week 5 might have been how vulnerable Georgia and Alabama look at the top of the rankings. Georgia was sleepwalking for the second week in a row and Alabama lost QB Bryce Young in its game. Neither lost but you can see how they could (and Young's status is still in question for this week).
It was a good weekend for the Big Ten, as you will see below, but the other top leagues might look back to Week 5 and see it as a turning point, for better or worse, I am not sure yet. We are now into conference play almost without exception and that tightens things up for sure.
Here is a look at some of the things we saw that might help us win more down the stretch.
What We Learned in Week 5
Ohio State #1?
The Buckeyes are part of that top trio of teams with Georgia and Alabama, but they are the only one that played like it last week. Even missing their top running back they put up nearly 50 points against Rutgers (no cover though). If CJ Stroud is the best quarterback in the country are we sure Ohio State is not the best team? The Big Ten is going to offer some tests too. I think this team can be better and definitely healthier.
Betting Takeaway: I am higher on OSU than I have been at any point this season.
Can anybody understand the SEC?
Per the intro, UGa is causing us to question them, at least a little, and it looks like things have really come off the rails at Auburn and Texas A&M. Bryan Harsin has to be the next coach fired, right? It might have been Jimbo Fisher if it wouldn't cost the Aggies close to $100 million right now. At the end of the weekend, Ole Miss is the most consistent program in the league this season (with Kentucky, who they just beat, second). That is the program led by Lane Kiffin. How did that happen?
Betting Takeaway: There is going to be more chaos as teams that are losing have more than enough talent to be spoilers in the future. Don't write off the Aggies, Wildcats, or Razorbacks.
Even Kansas is not in Kansas any more
Kansas was supposed to lose last week ... again. They are now 5-0 SUATS even though they have only been favored in one FBS game this season. They are going to be the hosts of Gameday this week with fellow undefeated TCU coming to Lawrence. I love it. At some point, you have to think there is a 38-10 clunker of a loss (maybe even this week), but the Jayhawks are proving that coaching can matter.
Betting Takeaway: You can officially start including Kansas in your weekly breakdowns (if you weren't already).
Don't forget about the Group of 5
In September, the Sun Belt looked like the best league in the G5. Conference USA had its moments, too. This note is a reminder to not forget about these smaller leagues now that they are beating up on each other instead of getting hammered by the big boys. CUSA had four outright upsets over six games last week alone. That is not going to happen every week, or in every conference, but there is great value in getting away from the heavily bet games of the SEC, Big Ten, etc.
Betting Takeaway: Honing in a league that gets a little less spotlight is a great strategy. Those lines are less likely to move on the action too. So you won't lose the lines you want.
ACC setting up Clemson
Coming into the season Clemson was considered the top team in the league but NC State looked really good and Miami was on the rise. Last week the Tigers beat the Wolfpack and we also so Florida State lose and Pitt lost to Georgia Tech (uggh). The gap between Clemson and the rest of the league might have jumped right back to what it was 3 years ago. Sorry ACC. You had your chance.
Betting Takeaway: After Clemson, things get pretty wild in the rest of the league. Miami might still be the next best team. Go with the underdogs where you can — see Wake Forest.
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